Category: Ecosystems

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [28]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being disrupted and altered, with structural changes in plant and animal populations. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural productivity and population growth might motivate unsustainable agricultural practices resulting in increased deforestation, fires and soil erosion. In turn, soil erosion, along with heavy precipitation and storms, facilitate the occurrence of landslides, threatening human lives, infrastructure and natural resources [29].

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Madagascar are shown in Figure 16 and 17, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show particularly strong agreement on the development of species richness: Under RCP6.0, species richness is expected to decrease almost all over Madagascar, in some parts by up to 50 % (Figure 16). Under RCP2.6, models are far less certain, projecting slight increases in small patches across Madagascar.

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, model results are very uncertain and only small changes are projected under both RCPs (Figure 17). Hence, no clear tree cover trends can be identified.

It is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [30]. In recent years, Madagascar’s vegetation has experienced profound disturbances due to population pressure and increasing demand for firewood as well as agricultural land, leading to high rates of slash-and-burn activities, which are one of the main drivers behind deforestation [17]. The country has lost 3.89 million ha of tree cover between 2001 and 2019, which is equivalent to a 23 % decrease of national forest area [31].

References

[17] J. Busch et al., “Climate Change and the Cost of Conserving Species in Madagascar,” Conserv. Biol., vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 408–419, 2012, doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01838.x.
[29] V. J. Ramasiarinoro, L. Andrianaivo, and E. Rasolomanana, “Landslides and Associated Mass Movements Events in the Eastern Part of Madagascar: Risk Assessment, Land-Use Planning, Mitigation Measures and Further Strategies,” Madamines, vol. 4, pp. 28–41, 2012.
[30] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[31] Global Forest Watch, “Madagascar,” 2019. Online available: www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: Sep. 28, 2020].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [27]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plant populations being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural productivity and population growth might motivate further agricultural expansion resulting in increased deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Mauritania are shown in Figure 16 and 17, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show particularly strong agreement on the development of species richness: Under RCP2.6, south-western Mauritania is expected to gain up to 30 % of animal species due to climate change. This trend will intensify under RCP6.0, in addition to a decrease of up to 50 % in the south-east of the country (Figure 16).

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, model results are very uncertain and of low magnitude under both RCPs (Figure 17), which could also relate to the fact that tree cover in Mauritania is generally sparse. Overall, no reliable estimations on the development of tree cover can be made.

It is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [28]. In recent years, Mauritania’s vegetation has experienced profound disturbances due to population pressure and increasing demand for pastures, agricultural land and firewood, leading to high rates of deforestation [25]. The country has lost 86 000 ha of forest cover in the period from 2001 to 2016, which is equivalent to a 28 % decrease [2].

References

[2] World Bank, “World Bank Open Data,” 2019. Online available: https://data.worldbank.org [Accessed: 31-Jan-2020].
[25] N. K. Dia, A. A. Bayod-Rújula, N. Mamoudou, M. Diallo, C. S. Ethmane, and B. O. Bilal, “Energy Context in Mauritania,” Energy Sources, Part B Econ. Plan. Policy, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 182–190, 2017.
[27] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[28] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [34]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems with plants being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also influence succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Chad are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show similar patterns of change in species richness across both RCPs, with higher modelling uncertainty under RCP2.6. Under RCP6.0, models project increases in the number of species of up to 40 % for north-eastern Chad and decreases of up to 20 % for the western and southern parts of the country by 2080.

Tree cover

With regards to tree cover, model projections vary depending on the scenario (Figure 16). Under RCP2.6, models project a decrease in tree cover of 2 % for the very south of Chad, while under RCP6.0, tree cover is projected to increase by 2 % in the south of the country by 2080⁷.

Although these results paint a rather positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [35]. For example, population influxes in affected areas, need for pasture and agricultural land and logging have resulted in high rates of deforestation [36]: Chad has lost 1.54 million ha of forest cover in the period from 2001 to 2016, which is equivalent to a 25 % decrease [37].

⁷ Due to the low starting values of tree cover in most parts of Chad, even small actual changes can lead to high percentage changes, which is why tree cover projections should be considered with caution.

References

[34] T. M. Shanahan et al., “CO² and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[35] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[36] FAO and UNHCR, “Rapid Woodfuel Assessment 2017 Baseline for the Area Around the City of Goré, Chad,” Rome, Italy and Geneva, Switzerland, 2018.
[37] Global Forest Watch, “Chad.” Online available: https://www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: 27-Apr-2020].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, even though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [33]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems with plant populations being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural production and population growth might motivate further agricultural expansion resulting in increased deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Côte d’Ivoire are shown in Figure 16 and 17, respectively. Projections of the number of animal species show an increase by 2080 (Figure 16): Under RCP2.6, models agree that the number of animal species will increase by up to 20 % all across Côte d’Ivoire. Under RCP6.0, models agree on a similar trend, yet only for the northern part of the country.

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, model results are far less certain. For RCP2.6, there is model agreement on a decrease in tree cover in small patches across all of Côte d’Ivoire. For RCP6.0, however, model agreement is low and no clear trend can be identified (Figure 17).

It is important to keep in mind that model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and which are expected to remain its main driver in the future [34]. For example, rapid growth of agricultural production, uncontrolled fires and logging have resulted in one of the highest rates of deforestation worldwide: Côte d’Ivoire has lost 3.03 million hectares of forest cover in the period from 2001 to 2019, which is equivalent to a 20 % decrease [15].

References

[15] Global Forest Watch, “Côte d’Ivoire.” Online available: www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: 27-Jan-2020].
[33] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[34] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [27]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems with plants being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Uganda are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. Changes depend on the region and scenario: Under RCP2.6, species richness is projected to increase by 15 % in central Uganda and decrease by 10 % in the south-west and north-east of the country, while under RCP6.0, projections indicate an increase by 20 % in south-eastern Uganda and a decrease by 10 % in the west and north-east of the country, with higher modelling uncertainty (Figure 15).

Tree cover

Tree cover projections for Uganda are also characterised by high modelling uncertainty. Models tend to project a slight increase of up to 5 % under RCP6.0, especially in eastern Uganda, and a slight decrease of up to 4 % under RCP2.6, which can be observed in various small patches across the country (Figure 16).

It is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as intensive land use and land use change, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [28]. In Uganda, the need for new settlements and land for cultivation threaten tree cover and biodiversity with high rates of deforestation: Uganda has lost 844 000 ha of forest cover in the period from 2001 to 2019, which is equivalent to an 11 % decrease since 2000 [29].

References

[27] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[28] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[29] Global Forest Watch, “Uganda,” 2018. Online available: https://www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: 03-Mar-2020].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, even though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [28]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plant populations being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also affect succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural production and population growth might motivate further agricultural expansion resulting in increased deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Kenya are shown in Figure 16 and 17, respectively. Projections of the number of animal species vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 16). Since every species reacts differently to climate impacts, some areas in Kenya are projected to gain in the number of animal species, while other areas are projected to lose animal species due to climate change. The locations of projected changes shift from RCP2.6 to RCP6.0 with higher certainty under the latter. Nevertheless, a clear picture cannot be drawn.

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, model results are clearer and more certain, especially for RCP6.0 and after 2050: Median model projections agree on an increase of tree cover by up to 9 % in south-eastern Kenya (Figure 17). This increase can be explained by the increasing precipitation levels which are projected in this region.

Although these results paint a rather positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and which are expected to remain its main driver in the future [29].

References

[28] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[29] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [29]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems with plant populations being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural productivity and population growth might motivate further agricultural expansion resulting in increased deforestation, land degradation and forest fires all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Tanzania are shown in Figure 16 and 17, respectively. Projections of the number of animal species show a strong decrease by 2080 (Figure 16): Under RCP6.0, most models agree that the number of animal species will decrease by up to 15 %, especially in central Tanzania, while other areas in northern and eastern Tanzania are projected to gain in the number of species.

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, median model projections agree on a decrease by 2 % in Tanzania under RCP 2.6 and an increase of up to 9 % in central Tanzania under RCP6.0 by 2080 (Figure 17). The latter can be explained by increasing precipitation amounts in this region.

Although these results paint a rather positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and which are expected to remain its main driver in the future [30]. For example, extensive land-use change in the densely vegetated foothills of Mount Kilimanjaro accounted for an expansion of cultivated land from 54 % in 1973 to 63 % in 2000, all at the expense of natural vegetation [31]. Overall, Tanzania lost 2.51 million hectares of tree cover from 2001 to 2019, which is equivalent to a decrease of 9.5 % [32].

References

[29] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[30] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[31] B. S. Misana, C. Sokoni, and M. J. Mbonile, “Land-Use / Cover Changes and Their Drivers on the Slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania,” J. Geogr. Reg. Plan., vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 151–164, 2012.
[32] Global Forest Watch, “Tanzania.” Online available: www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: 10-Jul-2020].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [28]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plants being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Mali are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. Under RCP6.0, species richness is projected to decrease by 10 % in the southern half of Mali by 2080 compared to the year 2000. In the centre, however, species richness is projected to increase by up to 30 % (Figure 15). All models agree on this trend.

Tree cover

In terms of tree cover, model agreement is lower: Models project increases in tree cover of up to 1.5 % in parts of southern Mali under RCP6.0 (Figure 16). Projections of both species richness and tree cover under RCP2.6 are subject to high modelling uncertainty.

Although these results suggest a positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [29]. For example, rapid growth of agricultural production and logging have resulted in high rates of deforestation: Mali has lost 330 000 ha of forest cover in the period from 2001 to 2018, which is equivalent to a 13 % decrease since 2000 [30]. Given Mali’s rapid population growth, this trend is likely to continue and will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

References

[28] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, D. William, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[29] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[30] Global Forest Watch, “Mali.” Online available: https://www.globalforestwatch.org [Accessed: 25-Feb-2020].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [31]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plant populations being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also impact succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems. In addition to these climate drivers, low agricultural productivity and population growth might motivate further agricultural expansion, resulting in increased deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Niger are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show particularly strong agreement on the development of species richness under RCP6.0: Northern Niger is expected to gain up to 20 % of animal species due to climate change, while southern Niger is expected to lose around 20 %.

Tree cover

With regard to tree cover, model results are far less certain and of low magnitude. For RCP2.6, there is model agreement in very few areas showing no change in tree cover. Under RCP6.0, tree cover is projected to increase by only 0.5 % in central Niger by 2080 (Figure 16).

It is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [32]. In recent years, Niger’s vegetation has experienced profound disturbances due to population pressure and increasing demand for farmland and firewood, leaving large parts of Niger’s soils severely degraded [25]. According to an ICRISAT report, around 80 000 to 120 000 ha of land are annually degraded in Niger [33].

References

[31] T. M. Shanahan, K. A. Hughen, N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, C. A. Scholz, W. D. Gosling, C. S. Miller, J. A. Peck, J. W. King, and C. W. Heil, “CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[32] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the work of its seventh session,” n.p., 2019.
[33] B. V. Bado, P. Savadogo, and M. L. S. Manzo, “Restoration of Degraded Lands in West Africa Sahel: Review of Experiences in Burkina Faso and Niger,” n.p., 2016.

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [27]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plants being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also influence succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Burkina Faso are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show clear patterns of change in species richness across both RCPs: In most regions, the number of species is projected to decrease in response to climate change (Figure 15). In 2080, under RCP6.0, this decrease will reach almost 10 % compared to the year 2000. An increase of species richness is only projected for the south-west of Burkina Faso.

Tree cover

The opposite gradient is found in tree cover projections, with increases projected for the north-east and decreases projected for the south-west (Figure 16). Under RCP6.0, the increase in tree cover in the northeast amounts to about 5 % compared to the year 2000. This can be explained by the increasing precipitation levels in this region.

Although these results paint an overall positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [28]. In Burkina Faso, the need for new settlements, land for cultivation and for fuel wood threatens tree cover and biodiversity [29]. Fuel wood covers 85 % of household energy needs in Burkina Faso, resulting in ongoing deforestation [30]. These pressures are likely to intensify due to low agricultural production and population growth, resulting in even higher rates of deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

References

[27] T. M. Shanahan et al., “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[28] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[29] K. Dimobe, A. Ouédraogo, S. Soma, D. Goetze, S. Porembski, and A. Thiombiano, “Identification of Driving Factors of Land Degradation and Deforestation in the Wildlife Reserve of Bontioli (Burkina Faso, West Africa),” Glob. Ecol. Conserv., vol. 4, pp. 559–571, 2015.
[30] A. Russell et al., “Using Forests to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change: The Case of the Wood-Energy Sector in Burkina Faso,” n.p., 2013.