Category: Health

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms, including cyclones. Among the key health challenges in Madagascar are morbidity and mortality through vector-borne diseases such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) such as diarrhoea, respiratory diseases, tuberculosis and HIV [32]. Climate change also impacts food and water supply, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Many of these challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change. According to the World Health Organization, Madagascar recorded an estimated 2.2 million cases of malaria including 5 350 deaths in 2018 [33]. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the geographic range of vector-borne diseases: In Madagascar, malaria usually does not occur above 1 500 m [34]. However, temperature increases could expand occurrence to higher-lying areas. This is already the case in Antananarivo which used to be largely free of malaria but is now observing rising numbers of cases [35]. Malaria is also likely to increase in many parts of Madagascar due to flooding and stagnant waters, which provide a breeding ground for mosquitos [35]. Climate change also poses a threat to food security and malnutrition, particularly for subsistence farmers. Chronic malnutrition is generally high with 42 % and could further increase due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic [36]. Furthermore, access to healthcare is often complicated in Madagascar: 40 % of the population live in areas far away from health centers and have to travel for hours to seek medical treatment [35]. Access is even more difficult in the rainy season when many rural areas are cut off by impassable roads.

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Madagascar, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 0.2 % in 2000 to 4.8 % in 2080 (Figure 18).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from 1.3 to 5.4 deaths per 100 000 people per year by 2080. This translates to an increase by a factor of more than four towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 19). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to 2.9 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[32] Ministère de la Santé Publique Madagascar, “Politique nationale de santé,” Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2016.
[33] WHO, “World Malaria Report 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[34] U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, “Madagascar: Malaria Operational Plan FY 2017,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[35] S. Barmania, “Madagascar’s Health Challenges,” Lancet, vol. 386, pp. 729–730, 2015.
[36] WFP, “Madagascar Country Brief August 2020,” Rome, Italy, 2020.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Mauritania are morbidity and mortality through vector-borne diseases such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) such as diarrhoea and cholera, as well as tuberculosis, HIV and respiratory diseases [29]. Climate change is also likely to impact food and water supply, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Many of these challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Mauritania recorded around 174 000 cases of malaria in 2018 [30]. Climate change is likely to have an impact on malaria transmission periods and the geographic range of vector-borne diseases: In Mauritania, the general malaria risk is projected to fall due to rising temperatures [31]. However, some regions are likely to become more vulnerable to malaria, for instance, due to more frequent incidences of flooding [32]. Climate change also poses a threat to food security and malnutrition, particularly for subsistence farmers. While chronic malnutrition is generally high at 19.6 %, it could further increase due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic [33]. According to the WHO, more than 900 000 people faced food insecurity in June 2020, which is an increase of 48 % within six months [33].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Mauritania, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 6 % in 2000 to 34 % in 2080 (Figure 18).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from about 2 to about 7 deaths per 100 000 people per year by 2080, which translates to an increase by a factor of more than three towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 19). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 4 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[29] Republique Islamique de Mauritanie, “Rapport d’analyse de situation du secteur de la santé,” Nouakchott, Mauritania, 2011.
[30] WHO, “World Malaria Report 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[31] C. Caminade, A. E. Jones, R. Ross, and G. Macdonald, “Malaria in a Warmer West Africa,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. November, pp. 984–985, 2016.
[32] R. Boyce, R. Reyes, M. Matte, M. Ntaro, E. Mulogo, J. P. Metlay, L. Band, and M. J. Siedner, “Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change,” J. Infect. Dis., vol. 214, pp. 1403–1410, 2016.
[33] WFP, “Mauritania Country Brief: June 2020,” Rome, Italy, 2020.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Chad are morbidity and mortality through vector-borne diseases such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) such as diarrhoea and cholera, respiratory diseases, measles and meningitis [38], [39]. Climate change can impact food and water supply, which can increase the risk of malnutrition and hunger. Many of these challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 2.5 million cases of malaria including 8 693 deaths were reported in 2018 [38]. Climate change is likely to have an impact on malaria transmission periods and the geographic range of vector-borne diseases: In Chad, like in other Sahel countries, the general malaria risk could decrease due to rising temperatures, but some regions are likely to become more vulnerable, for instance, due to more frequent incidences of flooding [39], [40]. Temperature increases and humidity decreases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase the number of meningitis cases and prepone the seasonal onset of meningitis [41], [42]. Southern Chad is part of the so-called Meningitis Belt, which largely coincides with the Sahel region and which is where the majority of meningitis epidemics occur. Food insecurity and malnutrition present another major health problem: Between June and August 2020, 1.1 million people are expected to be severely food insecure with more than 460 000 cases of severe acute malnutrition [43].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Chad, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 2.5 % in 2000 to 14 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from approximately 4 to about 12 deaths per 100 000 people per year (Figure 18). This translates to an increase by a factor of more than three towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place. Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 8 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[38] WHO, “World Malaria Report 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[39] R. Boyce et al., “Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change,” J. Infect. Dis., vol. 214, pp. 1403–1410, 2016.
[40] C. Caminade, A. E. Jones, R. Ross, and G. Macdonald, “Malaria in a Warmer West Africa,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. November, pp. 984–985, 2016.
[41] A. F. Abdussalam et al., “The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations,” Weather. Clim. Soc., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 371–379, 2014.
[42] A. M. Molesworth, L. E. Cuevas, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse, and M. C. Thomson, “Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa,” Emerg. Infect. Dis., vol. 9, no. 10, pp. 1287–1293, 2003.
[43] OCHA, “Chad: Humanitarian Situation Overview (February 2020),” N’Djamena, Chad, 2020.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Amongst the key health challenges in Côte d’Ivoire are morbidity and mortality through respiratory diseases, HIV / AIDS, tuberculosis, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, and impacts of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) including injury and mortality as well as related waterborne diseases such as diarrhoea [35]. Many of these health challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change, which is also likely to impact food and water supply, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Although severe food insecurity has disappeared, it still remains a challenge in Côte d’Ivoire, in addition to malnutrition: In 2016, the national stunting rate of children under the age of 5 was 21.6 % and the food insecurity rate 10.8 %, with rural communities in western and northern Côte d’Ivoire being disproportionately stronger affected and more vulnerable [36]. Furthermore, climate change is likely to lengthen transmission periods and alter the geographic range of various diseases, for instance, due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation amounts. In 2015, the estimated malaria incidence in the country was 349 cases per 1 000 people at risk [37]. Temperature increases could lead to more frequent outbreaks of meningitis, especially in northern Côte d’Ivoire, while increases in precipitation could heighten the risk of malaria [17].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Côte d’Ivoire, which will increase heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 9 % in 2000 to 31 % in 2080 (Figure 18), and heat-related mortality will likely increase from 1.5 to 7 deaths per 100 000 people per year. This translates to an increase by a factor of about five towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 19). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 3.5 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[17] World Bank, “Climate Change Knowledge Platform: Côte d’Ivoire.” Online available: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/cote-divoire/vulnerability [Accessed: 27-Jan-2020].
[35] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “CDC in Côte d’lvoire,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2018.
[36] World Food Programme, “WFP Côte d’Ivoire Country Brief,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[37] U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, “Côte d’Ivoire,” Washington, D.C., 2015.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Uganda are morbidity and mortality through HIV / AIDS, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, respiratory diseases, tuberculosis and waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding), such as diarrhoea and mortality, which can increase the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine [30]. Scientific investigations among smallholder farmers in Uganda found a strong link between drought, food security and stunting [31]. Stunting rates differ among regions: In Tooro in western Uganda, 41 % of children under the age of five are stunted, while in Teso in eastern Uganda, the stunting rate is at 14 % [32]. Furthermore, climate change is likely to lengthen transmission periods and alter the geographic range of vector-borne diseases, for instance, due to changes in precipitation and rising temperatures. Increases in precipitation in addition to more frequent and extreme flooding could increase the risk of malaria [33]. Temperature increases could allow for transmission in areas which were previously free of malaria, such as the highlands [34]. However, when exceeding 33 °C, transmission may also decrease [35]. In Uganda, malaria is the most frequently reported disease at both public and private health facilities with 12.4 million cases and 13 203 deaths in 2018, according to WHO estimates [36].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Uganda, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 0.2 % in 2000 to 9.5 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from approximately 2 to about 8 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of four towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place. Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 5 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080 (Figure 18).

References

[30] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “CDC in Uganda,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2019.
[31] S. Ly, P. O. Okello, R. Mpiira, and Z. Ali, “Climate Event Consequences on Food Insecurity and Child Stunting Among Smallholder Farmers in Uganda: A Cross-Sectional Study,” Lancet Glob. Heal., 2018.
[32] USAID, “Uganda: Nutrition Profile,” Washington, D.C., 2018.
[33] R. Boyce, R. Reyes, M. Matte, M. Ntaro, E. Mulogo, J. P. Metlay, L. Band, and M. J. Siedner, “Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change,” J. Infect. Dis., vol. 214, pp. 1403–1410, 2016.
[34] D. Alonso, M. J. Bouma, and M. Pascual, “Epidemic Malaria and Warmer Temperatures in Recent Decades in an East African Highland,” Proc. R. Soc. B, vol. 278, pp. 1661–1669, 2011.
[35] P. E. Parham and E. Michael, “Modeling the Effects of Weather and Climate Change on Malaria Transmission,” Environ. Health Perspect., vol. 118, pp. 620–626, 2010.
[36] WHO, “World Malaria Report 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms [30]. Among the key health challenges in Kenya are morbidity and mortality through HIV / AIDS, respiratory diseases, vector-borne diseases such as malaria and impacts of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding), including injury and mortality as well as related waterborne diseases such as diarrhoea and cholera [31]. Many of these health challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change. Climate change is also likely to impact food and water supply, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Studies found a strong link between precipitation levels and child stunting, which serves as a common indicator of malnutrition: Precipitation levels impact food production, which in turn impacts food availability and ultimately growth, particularly during infancy [32]. Furthermore, the WHO estimates that 70 % of the population in Kenya is at risk of contracting malaria [33]. Climate change is likely to lengthen transmission periods and alter the geographic range of vectorborne diseases, for instance, due to rising temperatures. In this way, malaria could expand from lowland to highland areas, parts of which have been malaria free so far [34].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Kenya, which will increase heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 0.6 % in 2000 to 6.0 % in 2080 (Figure 18).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from 1.4 to 6.8 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of five towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 19). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to 3.0 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[30] B. Simane, H. Beyene, W. Deressa, A. Kumie, K. Berhane, and J. Samet, “Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis,” Ethiop. J. Heal. Dev., vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 28–41, 2016.
[31] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “CDC in Kenya,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2016.
[32] K. Grace, F. Davenport, C. Funk, and A. M. Lerner, “Child Malnutrition and Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Recent Trends in Kenya,” Appl. Geogr., vol. 35, no. 1–2, pp. 405–413, 2012.
[33] WHO, “In Kenya, the Path to Elimination of Malaria Is Lined With Good Preventions,” 2017. Online available: https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/in-kenya-the-path-to-elimination-ofmalaria-is-lined-with-good-preventions [Accessed: 18-Nov-2019].
[34] USAID, “U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative: Kenya – Malaria Operational Plan FY 2019,” Washington, D.C., 2019.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Tanzania are morbidity and mortality through respiratory diseases, tuberculosis, HIV / AIDS, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, and impacts of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) including injury and mortality as well as related waterborne diseases such as diarrhoea. Many of these health challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change, which will likely impact food security and water supply, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Studies identified climate change as a primary driver of malnutrition in Tanzania, in addition to demographic change and poverty [33]. According to the Tanzanian Demographic and Health Survey 2015 / 2016, 34 % of all children under five years of age suffer from stunting and 14 % from underweight [34]. Furthermore, climate change is likely to extend the transmission periods and alter the geographic range of vector-borne diseases, for example, due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation. Malaria, for instance, has been a common disease in Tanzania’s low-lying rural areas, but is becoming increasingly prevalent in the previously malaria-free highlands due to climatic changes [35]. Although malaria admission and death rates have been decreasing in recent years, Tanzania has the third largest population at risk of this disease in Africa, with 90 % of the population living in malaria areas [36]. Coastal regions bordering the Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria exhibit particularly high vulnerability to malaria as well as to dengue [37], [38].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Tanzania, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 2 % in 2000 to 19 % in 2080 (Figure 18).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from 1.8 to 6.5 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of more than three towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 19). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 3.5 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[33] Inter-Agency Research and Analysis Network, “Overcoming the Challenges of Undernutrition in Tanzania Through 2021,” London, UK, 2017.
[34] Ministry of Health, “Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey,” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 2015.
[35] L. E. G. Mboera, B. K. Mayala, E. J. Kweka, and H. D. Mazigo, “Impact of Climate Change on Human Health and Health Systems in Tanzania: A Review,” Tanzan. J. Health Res., vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 1–23, 2012.
[36] MalariaSpot, “Malaria in Tanzania,” 2016. Online available: https://malariaspot.org / en / eduspot / malaria-in-tanzania [Accessed: 13-Dec-2019].
[37] D. de Savigny, C. Mayombana, E. Mwageni, H. Masanja, A. Minhaj, Y. Mkilindi, C. Mbuya, H. Kasale, and G. Reid, “Care-Seeking Patterns for Fatal Malaria in Tanzania,” Malar. J., vol. 3, pp. 1–15, 2004.
[38] C. N. Mweya, S. I. Kimera, G. Stanley, G. Misinzo, and L. E. G. Mboera, “Climate change influences potential distribution of infected Aedes aegypti co-occurrence with dengue epidemics risk areas in Tanzania,” PLoS One, vol. 11, no. 9, 2016.

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Mali are morbidity and mortality through vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding), such as diarrhoea, respiratory diseases, malnutrition, HIV / AIDS, meningitis, injury and mortality through extreme weather events [31]. Climate change can impact food and water supply, which can increase the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Scientific investigations found a link between extreme weather events and mortality patterns in Mali: Precipitation events of more than 10 mm per day were negatively associated with survival of children under five years of age, while colder temperatures were associated with lower mortality rates among the general population [32], [33].

Furthermore, climate change is likely to lengthen transmission periods and alter the geographic range of diseases, such as malaria or meningitis. Malaria continues to be the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in Mali, particularly among children under the age of 5 [34]. In some regions, malaria risk will likely increase, for instance, due to higher occurrence of flooding, but overall risk is projected to fall due to rising temperatures [35], [36]. Temperature increases could also lead to more frequent outbreaks of meningitis [37]. Mali is part of the so-called Meningitis Belt, which largely coincides with the Sahel region and which is where the majority of meningitis epidemics occur. Access to health care in Mali remains limited and is being further complicated by armed conflict: According to Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), many public and humanitarian health organisations have limited or even closed down their operations due to armed conflicts [38].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Mali, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 2 % in 2000 to 16 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from 2.5 to about 12 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which equals a factor of more than five towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 18). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 6 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[31] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC in Mali,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2018.
[32] P. Han and J. Foltz, “The Impacts of Climate Shocks on Child Mortality in Mali,” Madison, WI, 2013.
[33] B. Bakshi, R. J. Nawrotzki, J. R. Donato, and L. S. Lelis, “Exploring the Link Between Climate Variability and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Int. J. Environ. Sustain. Dev., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 206–237, 2019.
[34] U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, “Mali Country Profile,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[35] R. Boyce, R. Reyes, M. Matte, M. Ntaro, E. Mulogo, J. P. Metlay, L. Band, and M. J. Siedner, “Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change,” J. Infect. Dis., vol. 214, pp. 1403–1410, 2016.
[36] C. Caminade, A. E. Jones, R. Ross, and G. Macdonald, “Malaria in a Warmer West Africa,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. November, pp. 984–985, 2016.
[37] A. M. Molesworth, L. E. Cuevas, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse, and M. C. Thomson, “Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa,” Emerg. Infect. Dis., vol. 9, no. 10, pp. 1287–1293, 2003.
[38] Médecins Sans Frontières, “Violence in Central Mali Has Reached Unprecedented Levels,” 2019. Online available: https://www.msf.org/mali-conflict-curfew-and-floods-put-healthcare-out-reach [Accessed: 24-Feb-2020].

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Among the key health challenges in Niger are morbidity and mortality through vector-borne diseases such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) such as diarrhoea and cholera, respiratory diseases, meningitis, measles, injury and mortality through extreme weather events as well as climate impacts on food and water supply, which can increase the risk of malnutrition and hunger [34]. Many of these challenges are expected to become more severe under climate change. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Niger recorded around 8 million cases of malaria in 2018 [35]. Climate change is likely to have an impact on malaria transmission periods and the geographic range of vector-borne diseases: In Niger, the general malaria risk is projected to fall due to rising temperatures, however, some regions are likely to become more vulnerable to malaria, for instance, due to more frequent incidences of flooding [36], [37]. A study found that temperature increases and low humidity due to climate change have the potential to prepone the seasonal onset of meningitis and significantly increase the number of meningitis cases [38], [39]. Niger is part of the so-called Meningitis Belt, which largely coincides with the Sahel region and which is where the majority of meningitis epidemics occur. In 2015, the country suffered from a major meningitis epidemic with 8 500 reported cases and 573 deaths [40]. Climate change also poses a threat to food security since households in Niger depend on agricultural production for up to 40 % of their food consumption [5].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Niger, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 1.7 % in 2000 to 12 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, under RCP6.0, heat-related mortality will likely increase from about 3 to about 10 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of more than three towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 18). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 6 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[34] WHO, “Health Compendium Consolidated Appeal Process: Niger,” Geneva, Switzerland, 2012.
[35] WHO, “World Malaria Report 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[36] R. Boyce, R. Reyes, M. Matte, M. Ntaro, E. Mulogo, J. P. Metlay, L. Band, and M. J. Siedner, “Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change,” J. Infect. Dis., vol. 214, pp. 1403–1410, 2016.
[37] C. Caminade, A. E. Jones, R. Ross, and G. Macdonald, “Malaria in a Warmer West Africa,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. November, pp. 984–985, 2016.
[38] A. F. Abdussalam, A. J. Monaghan, D. F. Steinhoff, V. M. Dukic, M. H. Hayden, T. M. Hopson, J. E. Thornes, and G. C. Leckebusch, “The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations,” Weather. Clim. Soc., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 371–379, 2014.
[39] A. M. Molesworth, L. E. Cuevas, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse, and M. C. Thomson, “Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa,” Emerg. Infect. Dis., vol. 9, no. 10, pp. 1287–1293, 2003.
[40] WHO, “Meningococcal Disease – Niger (Update),” 2015. Online available: https://www.who.int/csr/don/23-july-2015-niger/en [Accessed: 21-Jan-2020].

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms [31]. Among the key health challenges in Burkina Faso are morbidity and mortality through temperature extremes, vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding), such as diarrhoea, and respiratory diseases, which are the number one cause of death [32]. According to the Severe Malaria Observatory, malaria is responsible for 61.5 % of hospitalisations in Burkina Faso and the largest contributor to mortality for children under five years of age [33]. Furthermore, extreme weather events as well as climate impacts on food and water supply are likely to increase the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Scientific investigations found a strong link between extreme weather events and mortality patterns in Burkina Faso [34]. Additionally, climate-induced variations in crop yields were negatively associated with children’s nutritional status and child survival in rural areas [35]. Despite increased government funding and expansion of health interventions, access to health care in Burkina Faso remains limited and is becoming increasingly difficult: According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), more than 500 000 people in Burkina Faso have no access to health care because many health and humanitarian organisations have limited or even closed down their operations due to armed conflicts [36].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Burkina Faso, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 1.7 % in 2000 to 10 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, heat-related mortality will likely increase from approximately 2 to about 10 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of five towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 18). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 5 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[31] B. Simane, H. Beyene, W. Deressa, A. Kumie, K. Berhane, and J. Samet, “Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis,” Ethiop. J. Heal. Dev., vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 28–41, 2016.
[32] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC in Burkina Faso,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2011.
[33] Severe Malaria Observatory, “Burkina Faso,” 2019. Online available: https://www.severemalaria.org/countries/burkina-faso [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].
[34] E. Diboulo et al., “Weather and Mortality: A 10 Year Retrospective Analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso,” Glob. Health Action, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 19078, Dec. 2012.
[35] K. Belesova, A. Gasparrini, A. Sié, R. Sauerborn, and P. Wilkinson, “Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso,” Am. J. Epidemiol., vol. 187, no. 2, pp. 242–250, 2018.
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