Category: Water

Madagascar is known for its abundant water resources from precipitation. However, these water resources are unevenly distributed across the country. While parts of the eastern coast of Madagascar receive more than 3,300 mm of precipitation annually, the south-west receives as little as 400 mm and is characterised by a semi-arid to arid climate [18]. For instance, in the 2019 / 2020 rainy season, the very south-west of the country, particularly northern Amboasary and parts of Ambovombe, Tsihombe and Bekily, recorded below-average precipitation levels, threatening agricultural crops which were just sown or at the flowering stage [8]. In contrast, northern Madagascar recorded above-average precipitation levels, which resulted in flooding in several regions, including Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Betsiboka, Boeny, Melaky, and Sofia [19]. Increasingly heavy precipitation events and cyclones already have devastating impacts on smallholder farmers. In a study conducted among smallholder farmers in the aftermath of the 2012 cyclone Giovanna, 81 % of farmers reported losing crops and 70 % reported damages to stored grains, resulting in prolonged periods with insufficient food for household consumption [20].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Madagascar display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest a decrease of 13 % (RCP2.6) and 15 % (RCP6.0) in per capita water availability by the end of the century (Figure 9A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁵, per capita water availability for Madagascar is projected to decline more dramatically, i.e. by 78 % under both RCPs by 2080 relative to the year 2000 (Figure 9B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption after 2030.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 10). In line with precipitation projections, water availability is projected to decrease by up to 25 % in the north and east of Madagascar under RCP6.0. Under RCP2.6, models project decreases of up to 20 % for the north-east with simultaneous increases of up to 40 % in the otherwise very dry south-west of the country. The partial increase in water availability projected under RCP2.6 is based on a constant population level. Hence, water saving measures are likely to become important for Madagascar’s rapidly growing population.

⁵ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[18] S. Lange, “EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim Data Merged and Bias-Corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI).” GFZ Data Service, Potsdam, Germany, 2016, doi: 10.5880/pik.2016.004.
[19] NASA Earth Observatory, “Flood Waters Overwhelm Northern Madagascar,” 2020. Online available: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146225/flood-waters-overwhelm-northern-madagascar [Accessed: Sep. 28, 2020].
[20] Z. L. Rakotobe et al., “Strategies of Smallholder Farmers for Coping with the Impacts of Cyclones: A Case Study from Madagascar,” Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., vol. 17, pp. 114–122, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.04.013.

Mauritania has experienced strong seasonal and annual variation in precipitation as well as recurring droughts, all of which present major constraints to agricultural production [16], [17]. The country was hit by recurring droughts in the 1970s and 1980s as precipitation amounts decreased during that time [18]. This decrease in precipitation led to critical reductions in water resources and vegetation, increased land degradation and desertification, which resulted in loss of arable land and reduced agricultural production, as well as loss of pastures and livestock depletion [18]. Poverty rates soared in already vulnerable rural communities and created a mass exodus to urban centres [18]. While in 1980, only 27 % of Mauritania’s population was urban, this figure increased more than twofold to 55 % in 2019 [2]. Furthermore, the effects of drought sparked conflicts between farmers and herders in the Senegal River Valley, leading to the Senegal-Mauritania Conflict in 1989 with thousands of people killed and hundreds of thousands displaced [19], [20]. Although annual precipitation sums recovered in the 1990s, they remain below the national average of the past century with further droughts recorded in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 [17], [21]. Overall, Mauritania’s freshwater resources are very unevenly distributed with concentrations along the southern border, leaving the country’s growing population under water stress and in competition over limited water resources.

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Mauritania display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest only little change in per capita water availability over Mauritania by the end of the century under either RCP (Figure 9A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁵, per capita water availability for Mauritania is projected to decline by 71 % under RCP2.6 and 77 % under RCP6.0 by 2080 relative to the year 2000 (Figure 9B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption after 2030.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 10). In line with precipitation projections, water availability is projected to increase in parts of western, central and north-eastern Mauritania under RCP2.6. Under RCP6.0, however, model agreement is low with precipitation decreases of up to 30 % projected for the south of Mauritania. The projected increase in water availability under RCP2.6 is based on a constant population level. Hence, water saving measures are likely to become important for Mauritania’s rapidly growing population.

⁵ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[17] P. Ozer, Y. C. Hountondji, J. Gassani, B. Djaby, and D. L. F, “Évolution récente des extrêmes pluviométriques en Mauritanie (1933–2010),” XXVIIeme Colloq. l’Association Int. Climatol., pp. 394–400, 2014.
[18] Islamic Republic of Mauritania, “National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change,” Nouakchott, Mauritania, 2004.
[19] R. Parker, “The Senegal–Mauritania Conflict of 1989: a Fragile Equilibrium,” J. Mod. Afr. Stud., vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 155–171, Mar. 1991.
[20] A. Nicolaj, “The Senegal Mauritanian Conflict,” Africa Riv. Trimest. di Stud. e Doc. dell’Instituto Ital. per l’Africa e l’Oriente, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 464–480, 1990.
[21] USAID, “Climate Change Risk Profile: West African Sahel,” Washington, D.C., 2017.

Over the last decades, Chad has experienced strong seasonal and annual variations in precipitation, which present a major constraint to agricultural production [17], [18]. The country was hit by severe droughts between 1950 and the mid-1980s as precipitation decreased during that time [19]. Annual precipitation sums recovered afterwards but remain below the 20th century average [19]. Further droughts were registered in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 [20]. The 2012 Sahel drought affected a total of 3.6 million people in Chad [21]. Transhumance used to be an effective way to deal with variations in precipitation and droughts, with many Chadian pastoralists migrating to the Central African Republic during the dry season [22]. However, people’s reliance on this type of pastoralism has been challenged by increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns and a 150-km southward spread of the Sahara and Sahel zones over the period between 2005 and 2015 [23]. The resulting lack of pastures and water has led to increasing competition over these scarce resources [23]. Other stressors include population growth, conflicts between farmers and herders and terrorist activities in the greater region, making this mode of living less profitable and sometimes even dangerous [24], [25]. Repeated droughts tend to have a cascading effect: Lack of water reduces crop yields, which increases the risk of food insecurity for people and their livestock, which in turn limits their capacity to cope with future droughts [26].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Chad display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest almost no change in per capita water availability over Chad by the end of the century under either RCPs (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁵, per capita water availability for Chad is projected to decline by 75 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region (Figure 9). In line with precipitation projections, water availability is projected to increase in central and particularly in northern Chad under both RCPs. However, especially towards the end of the century, model agreement on these increases is low. The projected increase in water availability is based on a constant population level. Hence, water saving measures are likely to remain important for the country’s rapidly growing population.

⁵ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimations of broad characteristics such as country-level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[17] B. Sarr et al., “Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in Smallholder Farming Communities: A Case Study From Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger (CVCADAPT),” J. Agric. Ext. Rural Dev., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16–27, 2015.
[18] P. Maharana, A. Y. Abdel-Lathif, and K. C. Pattnayak, “Observed Climate Variability Over Chad Using Multiple Observational and Reanalysis Datasets,” Glob. Planet. Change, vol. 162, pp. 252–265, 2018.
[19] USAID, “A Climate Trend Analysis of Chad,” Washington, D.C., 2012.
[20] USAID, “Climate Change Risk Profile: West Africa Sahel,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[21] FAO, “Race on to Help Farmers and Herders in Drought-Stricken Sahel,” 2012. Online available: http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-inaction/stories/stories-detail/en/c/148046 [Accessed: 24-Apr-2020].
[22] FAO, “Strengthening Social Cohesion Among Communities in the Central African Republic and Chad Through Sustainable Management of Cross-Border Transhumance,” 2020. Online available: http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/1261074 [Accessed: 23-Apr-2020].
[23] Republic of Chad, “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) for the Republic of Chad,” N’Djamena, Chad, 2015.
[24] U. T. Okpara, L. C. Stringer, and A. J. Dougill, “Using a Novel Climate–Water Conflict Vulnerability Index to Capture Double Exposures in Lake Chad,” Reg. Environ. Chang., vol. 17, pp. 351–366, 2017.
[25] S. T. Asah, “Transboundary Hydro-Politics and Climate Change Rhetoric: An Emerging Hydro-Security Complex in the Lake Chad Basin,” WIREs Water, vol. 2, pp. 37–45, 2015.
[26] S. Traore and T. Owiyo, “Dirty Droughts Causing Loss and Damage in Northern Burkina Faso,” Int. J. Glob. Warm., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 498–513, 2013.

Water shortage in Côte d’Ivoire has been an issue for decades and is likely to continue in the future. Several studies show that climatic changes in the country have resulted in a decrease in total precipitation amounts, a shift of the onset of the rainy season and an increase in the frequency and duration of droughts [20]–[22]. The first six months of 2019 recorded an average precipitation decrease of 28 % in the country, hence the lowest value compared to the average precipitation sums from the period 2014–2018 [19]. Especially rural communities in the northern part of Côte d’Ivoire suffer from recurring water shortages limiting their abilities to improve agricultural activities [19]. The increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts has also led to the loss of the second crop cycle among rice farmers [23]. Today, due to decreased precipitation amounts, many farmers must get by with one crop cycle, in some areas not even achieving a full one. However, not only rural but also urban areas experience the consequences of droughts: In 2018, Côte d’Ivoire’s second-largest city Bouaké was left without running water for three weeks as a result of reduced precipitation and decreasing water levels in the Loka reservoir which supplies 70 % of the city’s water [24]. The government used tanker trucks to provide emergency supplies of water, while parts of the population had to migrate temporarily.

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Côte d’Ivoire display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest no change in per capita water availability over the country by the end of the century under either RCP (Figure 9A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁵, per capita water availability for Côte d’Ivoire is projected to decline by 55 % under both RCPs by 2080 relative to the year 2000 (Figure 9B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption, in particular in the northern part of Côte d’Ivoire, given the already recurring water shortages in that region [19].

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 10). Under RCP2.6, water availability will decrease by up to 20 % in parts of southern Côte d’Ivoire, with most models agreeing on this trend. The picture is different for RCP6.0: Model agreement is low except for a small patch in the western part of the country which is projected to gain up to 10 % in water availability.

⁵ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[19] World Food Programme, “WFP Côte d’Ivoire Country Brief August 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.
[20] B. T. A. Goula, B. Srohourou, A. B. Brida, K. A. N ’zué, and G. Goroza, “Determination and Variability of Growing Seasons in Côte d’Ivoire,” Int. J. Eng. Sci. Technol., vol. 2, no. 11, pp. 5993–6003, 2010.
[21] N. Coulibaly, T. J. H. Coulibaly, Z. Mpakama, and I. Savané, “The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Availability in a Trans-Boundary Basin in West Africa: The Case of Sassandra,” Hydrology, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–13, 2018.
[22] G. Mahe and J.-C. Olivry, “Variations des précipitations et des écoulements en Afrique de l’Ouest et centrale de 1951 à 1989,” Sécheresse (Montrouge), vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 109–117, 1995.
[23] FAO, “The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Ivory Coast, a Challenge Faced by Smallholder Farmers,” 2017. Online available: http://www.fao.org/in-action/aicca/news/detailevents/en/c/878311 [Accessed: 18-Feb-2020].
[24] L. A. Sanogo and D. Esnault, “After Cape Town, Ivory Coast City Feels the Thirst,” Phys.org, 2018. Online available: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-cape-town-ivory-coast-city.html [Accessed: 18-Feb-2020].

Uganda is known for abundant surface water resources including lakes, rivers and wetlands. 15 % of the country’s total land surface is covered by open water and 13 % by wetlands [13]. However, climate change is likely to impact Uganda’s water resources through variability in precipitation, rising temperatures and drought [14]. Over the last decades, Uganda has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought, particularly in the Karamoja region in the north-east, impacting agricultural production and food security [15]. Drought also materialises in decreasing water levels in Lake Victoria, which receives 80 % of its fresh water from direct rainfall [16]. In the period from 2004 to 2005, water levels in Lake Victoria dropped by 1.1 m to 10.69 m, reaching the lowest level since 1951 [17]. This drop was attributed to drought, in addition to unsustainable dam operations [17]. Water levels recovered afterwards, reaching a reversed record of 13.42 m in May 2020 [18]. This rise was attributed to continued rainfall, which started in late 2019 and resulted in the displacement of more than 480 000 people across the region [18]. Overall, however, water demand is going to increase due to population growth, putting pressure on Uganda’s water resources [13]. Another main driver behind the draining and degradation of wetlands is agricultural expansion, in addition to growing livestock populations, mining activities and deforestation [13].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Uganda display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest no change in per capita water availability over Uganda by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and an increase of 18 % under RCP6.0 (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁴, per capita water availability for Uganda is projected to decline by 80 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). Even though this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption as well as protection of watersheds and reservoirs.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 9). Under RCP2.6, models project a decrease of up to 25 % in southern and eastern Uganda, while under RCP6.0, model agreement is low all over Uganda. This modelling uncertainty, along with the high natural variability of precipitation, contributes to uncertain future precipitation trends all over Uganda.

⁴ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[13] A. I. Rugumayo, E. Jennings, S. Linnane, and B. Misstear, “Water Resources in Uganda,” in Water is Life, G. Honor Fagan, S. Linnane, K. G. McGuigan, and A. I. Rugumayo, Eds. Rugby, United Kingdom: Practical Action Publishing, 2015, pp. 73–96.
[14] USAID, “Climate Vulnerability Profile: Uganda,” Washington, D.C., 2012.
[15] C. Nakalembe, “Characterizing Agricultural Drought in the Karamoja Subregion of Uganda With Meteorological and Satellite-Based Indices,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 91, pp. 837–862, 2018.
[16] J. L. Awange, L. Ogalo, K. H. Bae, P. Were, P. Omondi, P. Omute, and M. Omullo, “Falling Lake Victoria Water Levels: Is Climate a Contributing Factor?,” Clim. Change, vol. 89, pp. 281–297, 2008.
[17] D. Kull, “Connections Between Recent Water Level Drops in Lake Victoria, Dam Operations and Drought,” Nairobi, Kenya, 2006.
[18] FEWS NET, “Seasonal Monitor: More Floods Affect Lake and Riverine Areas as End of the March to May Rainy Season Approaches,” 2020. Online available: https://fews.net/east-africa/seasonal-monitor/may-2020-0 [Accessed: 23-Jun-2020].

Climate model projections for East Africa, including Kenya, have been predicting a wetter future under climate change. Yet, recent experience shows an opposite trend with droughts occurring every three to four years and a major drought every ten years [15]. This discrepancy between model projections and experience on the ground has been termed the East African climate paradox [19]. Though different hypotheses exist, the scientific community has not yet been able to provide a reliable and comprehensive explanation for this paradox. Climate variability and the steady degradation of water resources are likely to make water availability even less predictable and limit capacities. Even areas which were known to receive high precipitation amounts and to be abundant in freshwater, such as the Mount Kenya region, experience more dry spells with rivers falling dry in an increasing frequency [20]. These changes are driven, amongst other factors, by high rates of water extraction for irrigation, livestock and domestic use, leading to conflicts between upstream and downstream water users. Lack of water availability has further been responsible for power shortages from decreased hydropower, which provides over 65 % of Kenya’s electricity, resulting in production and income losses in various sectors [15].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Kenya display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest an increase of water availability under RCP6.0 and no change under RCP2.6 (Figure 9A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁴, per capita water availability for Kenya is projected to decline by 73 % under RCP2.6 and by 63 % under RCP6.0 by 2080 relative to the year 2000 (Figure 9B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 10). Under RCP2.6, water availability will decrease by up to 25 % in western Kenya and increase by up to 25 % in southern Kenya by 2080. Most models agree on this trend. The picture is different for RCP6.0: Model agreement shifts to eastern Kenya, where water availability will increase by up to 80 %.

⁴ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[15] World Bank, “Climate Variability and Water Resources in Kenya,” Washington, D.C., 2009.
[19] D. Rowell, B. Booth, S. Nicholson, and B. Good, “Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa,” J. Clim., vol. 28, no. 24, pp. 9768–9788, 2015.
[20] B. Notter, L. MacMillan, D. Viviroli, R. Weingartner, and H. P. Liniger, “Impacts of Environmental Change on Water Resources in the Mt. Kenya Region,” J. Hydrol., vol. 343, no. 3–4, pp. 266–278, 2007.

Water shortage has been an issue in Tanzania for decades and is likely to continue in the future. Several studies show that climatic changes in Tanzania have resulted in a decrease in total precipitation, a shift of the onset of the rainy season and an increase in the frequency and duration of droughts [14][15]. These changes have materialised, for example, in the extreme decrease of water levels of Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika, and the 7-km recession of Lake Rukwa over the past 50 years [16]. Additional challenges related to water availability include an increasing demand associated with agricultural expansion and intensification and with the domestic needs of a growing population [17]. Unreliable precipitation in the highland areas has been the main driver for shifting agricultural production towards lower wetland areas, which offer comparatively fertile soils and year-round water availability [18]. However, the conversion of wetlands in favour of agricultural production has negative trade-off effects on affected ecosystems.

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Tanzania display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest no change in per capita water availability over Tanzania by the end of the century under RCP6.0 and only a slight decrease under RCP2.6 (Figure 9A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁴, per capita water availability for Tanzania is projected to decline by 76 % under both RCPs by 2080 relative to the year 2000 (Figure 9B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 10). Under RCP2.6, water availability will decrease by up to 25 % in northern and south-eastern Tanzania, with most models agreeing on this trend. The picture for RCP6.0 is different: The model agreement on the direction of change is low for all parts of Tanzania.

⁴ Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[14] U. Adhikari, A. P. Nejadhashemi, M. R. Herman, and J. P. Messina, “Multiscale Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Tanzania,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 1–13, 2017.
[15] A. E. Majule and M. A. Lema, “Impacts of Climate Change, Variability and Adaptation Strategies on Agriculture in Semi Arid Areas of Tanzania: The Case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania,” African J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 3, no. 8, pp. 206–218, 2009.
[16] Vice President’s Office Division of Environment, “National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA),” Dodoma, Tanzania, 2007.
[17] K. Velempini, T. A. Smucker, and K. R. Clem, “Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Mapping and Assessment of Water Resource Management Challenges in the North Pare Highlands, Tanzania,” African Geogr. Rev., vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 30–48, 2018.
[18] R. Y. M. Kangalawe, “Climate Change Impacts on Water Resource Management and Community Livelihoods in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania,” Clim. Dev., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 191–201, 2017.

Over the last decades, Mali has experienced strong seasonal and annual variations in precipitation, which present a major constraint to agricultural production [16], [17]. Mali was hit by severe droughts between 1970 and 2000 as a result of declining levels of precipitation since the mid-1950s. Although precipitation levels recovered towards the year 2000, they have remained below the national average of the past century [18]. The 2012 Sahel drought affected a total of 4.6 million people in Mali [19]. Extreme droughts tend to have a cascading effect: First, lack of water reduces crop yields, which increases the risk of food insecurity for people and their livestock, which in turn limits their capacity to cope with future droughts. Transhumance used to be an effective way to deal with variations in precipitation and droughts in Mali. However, people’s reliance on this type of pastoralism has been challenged by increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns. The resulting lack of pastures and water has led to increasing competition over these scarce resources, particularly along the Niger River and in the Inner Niger Delta. Other factors complicating transhumance include poor natural resource management, population growth, conflicts between farmers and herders and terrorist activities in the greater region, making this mode of living less profitable and sometimes even dangerous [20].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Mali display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest only slight decreases in water availability over Mali by the end of the century under both emissions scenarios (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections5, per capita water availability for Mali is projected to decline by 77 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth, rather than climate change, it highlights the great urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 9). In line with precipitation projections, water availability is projected to decline by 20 % in the south-west of Mali by 2080 under both RCPs. In the northern half of the country, however, water availability is projected to increase by 15 % under RCP2.6. Under RCP6.0, model agreement on these increases is low towards the end of the century. This modelling uncertainty, along with the high natural variability of precipitation, contributes to uncertain future water availability in particular in the north of Mali.

5 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[16] B. Traore, M. Corbeels, M. T. van Wijk, M. C. Rufino, and K. E. Giller, “Effects of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Crop Production in Southern Mali,” Eur. J. Agron., vol. 49, pp. 115–125, 2013.
[17] B. Sultan, P. Roudier, P. Quirion, A. Alhassane, B. Muller, M. Dingkuhn, P. Ciais, M. Guimberteau, S. Traore, and C. Baron, “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Sorghum and Millet Yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian Savannas of West Africa,” Environ. Res. Lett., vol. 8, pp. 1–9, 2013.
[18] USAID, “A Climate Trend Analysis of Mali,” Washington, D.C., 2012.
[19] World Bank, “Sahel Drought Situation Report No. 9: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,” Washington, D.C., 2012.
[20] UNOWAS, “Pastoralism and Security in West Africa and the Sahel,” n.p., 2018.

Over the last decades, Niger has experienced strong seasonal and annual variation in precipitation as well as recurring droughts, all of which present major constraints to agricultural production. The country was hit by recurring droughts between 1950 and 1980 as precipitation amounts decreased during that time [18]. Although annual precipitation sums recovered afterwards, they remain below the national average of the past century [18]. Further droughts were registered in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 [19]. The 2012 drought affected a total of 5.4 million people in Niger, 1.3 million of whom faced serious food insecurity and depended on humanitarian aid [20]. Extreme droughts tend to have a cascading effect: First, lack of water reduces crop yields, which increases the risk of food insecurity for people and their livestock and in turn limits their capacity to cope with future droughts [21]. Transhumance used to be an effective way to deal with variations in precipitation amounts and droughts in Niger, but people’s reliance on this type of pastoralism has been challenged by increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns and, consequently, a lack of good pastures and water [22]. Additional stressors include increasing competition for natural resources (partly due to population growth), depletion of livestock, and intercommunal and cross-border conflicts, making this mode of living less profitable and sometimes even dangerous [22].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Niger display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest almost no change in per capita water availability over Niger by the end of the century under either RCP (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections⁴, per capita water availability for Niger is projected to decline by 85 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). While this decline is primarily driven by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 9). In line with precipitation projections, water availability is projected to increase in most parts of the country under both RCPs. However, in most cases, model agreement on these increases is low towards the end of the century.

4 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outline a narrative of potential global futures, including estimates of broad characteristics such as country level population, GDP or rate of urbanisation. Five different SSPs outline future realities according to a combination of high and low future socio-economic challenges for mitigation and adaptation. SSP2 represents the “middle of the road”-pathway.

References

[18] USAID, “A Climate Trend Analysis of Niger,” Washington, D.C., 2012.
[19] USAID, “Climate Change Risk Profile: West Africa Sahel,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[20] OCHA, “Niger: 5.4 Million People Are Food Insecure,” Niamey, Niger, 2012.
[21] S. Traore and T. Owiyo, “Dirty Droughts Causing Loss and Damage in Northern Burkina Faso,” Int. J. Glob. Warm., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 498–513, 2013.
[22] UNOWAS, “Pastoralism and Security in West Africa and the Sahel,” n.p., 2018.

Over the last decades, Burkina Faso has experienced strong seasonal and annual variations in precipitation, which present a major constraint to agricultural production. According to the International Water Association, drought has affected a cumulative number of about 12.4 million people between 1969 and 2014 in Burkina Faso [15]. While transhumance used to be an effective way to deal with variations in precipitation and droughts in Burkina Faso, people’s reliance on this type of pastoralism has been challenged by increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns and, consequently, a lack of good pastures and water, leading to increasing competition for limited natural resources. Other factors include population growth, conflicts between farmers and herders and terrorist activities in the region, making this mode of living less profitable and sometimes even dangerous [16]. Extreme droughts tend to have a cascading effect for farmers: First, lack of water reduces crop yields, which increases the risk of food insecurity for people and their livestock, which in turn limits their capacity to cope with future droughts [16]. Not only rural but also urban areas experience the consequences of droughts: Especially Ouagadougou suffers from recurring water shortages, intensified by rapid urban growth and poor infrastructure. During a severe drought in 2016, the local government had to ration the city’s water supply to 12 hours a day, affecting more than two million people [17].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Burkina Faso display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest only a minor decrease in per capita water availability over Burkina Faso by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and a decrease of 20 % under RCP6.0 (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections5, per capita water availability for Burkina Faso is projected to decline by 80 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). While this decline is driven primarily by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 9). However, common to all regions is the high modelling uncertainty of the projected changes. This modelling uncertainty, along with the high natural variability of precipitation, in particular in the north of the country, contribute to uncertain regional future precipitation trends all over Burkina Faso.

References

[15] B. Ampomah-Ankrah, “The Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply in the Sahel Region: The Case of Burkina Faso,” International Water Association, 2019. Online available: https://iwa-network.org/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-water-supply-in-the-sahel-region [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].
[16] S. Traore and T. Owiyo, “Dirty Droughts Causing Loss and Damage in Northern Burkina Faso,” Int. J. Glob. Warm., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 498–513, 2013.
[17] M. Winsor, “Drought-Hit Burkina Faso Rations Water Supply in Ouagadougou Amid Severe Shortage,” International Business Times, 2016. Online available: https://www.ibtimes.com/droughthit-burkina-faso-rations-water-supply-ouagadougou-amid-severeshortages-2363145 [Accessed: 02-Mar-2020].