Category: Burkina Faso

One option to help farmers increase the productivity of soil, water, nutrients and other resources is the genetic improvement of crops under stress and optimal growing conditions (IPCC, 2019; Searchinger et al., 2014; Voss-Fels et al., 2019). An improved or modern variety is a new variety of a plant species which produces higher yields, higher quality or provides better resistance to plant pests and diseases, while minimizing the pressure on the natural environment (Access to Seeds Index, 2020). Such modern varieties are genetically uniform, which means that their characteristics are constant within all individuals of that specific variety. The exact definition and requirements of improved varieties depend on a country’s legislation and international treaties (e.g. harmonized Seed Regulation adopted by ECOWAS). Improved varieties have, for example, higher tolerances to abiotic stressors, such as drought (Fisher et al., 2015), resistances to biotic stressors (e.g. diseases and pests), improved resource use or other changes that permit altering the agronomic management by, for example, needing shorter growing cycles. Along with labour saving technologies and flexible credits, locally adapted seed varieties are among the most needed inputs for farmers in Burkina Faso (Roncoli et al., 2001).

Improved crop varieties are a highly beneficial adaptation strategy in Burkina Faso. Furthermore, the cost-benefit analysis shows a very positive return on a rather small-scale investment (see Figure 1). Due to its positive impact on yield increase and stability as well as increased levels of nutrients, improved varieties can also help to decrease malnutrition and undernutrition. However, there are several factors, such as high prices of agricultural inputs, the insufficiency of logistical and financial support, the poor organization of the sector, the lack of motivation by seed producers to enter the market, the climatic risks associated with agricultural production and a decline in soil fertility, which impede the use of improved seeds by farmers. Besides that, insufficient agronomic knowledge or non-locally adapted varieties can lead to controversial effects and negative outcomes of this strategy.

To achieve the optimal adaptation effect of improved varieties, the following recommendations should be considered:

• Ideally, improved varieties are promoted that fulfil several conditions, such as farmers’ preferences, local suitability, agronomic management and that are available and accessible for smallholder farmers. The sufficient supply of locally adapted good quality seeds on the local level should be, therefore, supported.
• To promote a continuing process of innovation adoption, efforts should be directed to creating a seed sector that covers the overall process for improved seeds from plant breeding and pre-breeding to seed propagation, marketing and advisory, whilst focusing on farmers’ needs.
• Knowledge transfer regarding the varieties’ potential and the best way to cultivate them can help farmers to use improved varieties.
• For a profitable adoption it is necessary to ameliorate the functioning of the agricultural value chain including functioning infrastructure and agriculture markets to make agricultural inputs available and accessible.
• It is also important to highlight the value of local landraces, as they are a pillar for safeguarding local traditions, agronomic practices and accompanying knowledge. Such a safeguarding of seeds and practices could be institutionalized by in-situ conservation projects, local seed banks, corporations with national or international gene banks and diversity fairs.
• A better communication and interaction of seed sector stakeholders can help to improve seed and knowledge dissemination on a local, regional and national level.

References

• Access to Seeds Index. (2020). Definitions. https://www.accesstoseeds.org/definitions/
• Fisher, M., Abate, T., Lunduka, R. W., Asnake, W., Alemayehu, Y., & Madulu, R. B. (2015). Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Climate Change, 133(2), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1459-2
• IPCC. (2019). Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• Ishikawa, H., Drabo, I., Joseph, B., Batieno, B., Muranaka, S., Fatokoun, C., & Boukar, O. (2020). Characteristics of farmers’ selection criteria for cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) varieties differ between north and south regions of Burkina Faso. Ex. Agric, 56(1), 94–103. https://doi.org/10.1017/S001447971900019X
• Roncoli, C., Ingram, K., & Kirshen, P. (2001). (2001): The costs and risks of coping with drought: Livelihood impacts and farmers’ responses in Burkina Faso. Clim. Res., 19, 119–132. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019119
• Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., & Lacape, J.-M. (2014). Crop Breeding: Renewing the Global Commitment. WRI.
• Voss-Fels, K. P., Stahl, A., Wittkop, B., Lichthardt, C., Nagler, S., Rose, T., Chen, T.-W., Zetzsche, H., Seddig, S., Baig, M. M., Ballvora, A., Frisch, M., Ross, E., Hayes, B. J., Hayden, M. J., Ordon, F., Leon, J., Kage, H., Friedt, W., … Snowdon, R. J. (2019). Breeding improves wheat productivity under contrasting agrochemical input levels. Nature Plants, 5(7), 706–714. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-019-0445-5

Burkina Faso faces natural soil poverty as well as a continuous decline in soil fertility due to the overexploitation of land, soil and water resources caused by population growth and the corresponding demand for food. Poor management practices (e.g. bush burning) often result in soil erosion and the subsequent loss of topsoil, thereby further limiting land suitable for crop production (Nyamekye et al., 2018). The increasing occurrence of droughts presents an additional stressor for soils, contributing to land degradation and reduced soil fertility.

Integrated soil fertility management, commonly referred to as ISFM, can help to secure agricultural outputs under those conditions and has been promoted in Burkina Faso for several decades (Zougmoré et al., 2004). Considered a key factor in improving low soil and crop productivity in Africa, ISFM is defined as “a set of soil fertility management practices that necessarily include the use of fertiliser, organic inputs and improved germplasm, combined with the knowledge on how to adapt these practices to local conditions in aim of maximizing the agronomic use efficiency of the applied nutrients and improving crop productivity. All inputs need to be managed following sound agronomic principles” (Vanlauwe et al., 2010). ISFM is not characterised by specific field practices, but is “a fresh approach to combining available technologies in a manner that preserves soil quality while promoting its productivity” (Sanginga & Woomer, 2009). ISFM requires interventions to be aligned with prevalent biophysical and socio-economic conditions at farm and plot level (Vanlauwe et al., 2015). Typical for drylands, ISFM in Burkina Faso is based on the following objectives: 1) maximising water capture and decreasing runoff, 2) reducing water and wind erosion, 3) managing limited available organic resources and 4) strategically applying mineral fertilisers (Sanginga & Woomer, 2009). Suitable interventions include, for example, Zaï, half-moons, stone bunds, filter bunds, grass strips and mulching.

ISFM is a promising adaptation strategy under all future climate change scenarios, supporting the rehabilitation of soil where it is degraded and increasing the plant diversity in Burkina Faso. At present, ISFM is mostly used in central and northern Burkina Faso, however, the technology could be beneficial for all regions in the country to manage soil moisture and fertility, partly due to its rather small-scale initial investment. This is also reflected in the results of the cost-benefit analysis which show that implementing ISFM techniques would be beneficial for the farmers (see Figure 1).

The following recommendations can thus be given for Burkina Faso:

• Awareness raising and training on the advantages and implementation of ISFM to support the effectiveness of this strategy which is relatively time consuming for farmers. The consideration of the technology in education and extension programs can also help to support the effective dissemination.
• Policies towards sustainable land use intensification, as well as the rehabilitation of degraded soils and the necessary mechanisms to implement and evaluate these can help to promote the uptake of ISFM.
• Research on innovative ISFM practices as well as the dissemination of the results can improve the effectiveness of the technology and further strengthen the adoption rate.
• The public sector can play an important role in creating a platform for bringing together and linking key partners in research, education, extension, service providers, input providers, and farmers to facilitate farmer mobilisation and capacity development.
• Policies that incentivise credit and loan schemes and subsidy programmes for the production of organic inputs could address the issue of lack of access to equipment and input.

References

• Nyamekye, C., Thiel, M., Schönbrodt-Stitt, S., Zoungrana, B. J. B., & Amekudzi, L. K. (2018). Soil and Water Conservation in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Sustainability, 10(9), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093182
• Sanginga, N., & Woomer, P. L. (2009). Integrated Soil Fertility Management in Africa—Principles, Practices and Development Process. Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility Institute of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (TSBF-CIAT).
• Vanlauwe, B., Bationo, A., Chianu, J., Giller, K. E., Merckx, R., Mokwunye, U., Ohiokpehai, O., Pypers, P., Tabo, R., Shepherd, K. D., Smaling, E. M. A., Woomer, P. L., & Sanginga, N. (2010). Integrated Soil Fertility Management: Operational Definition and Consequences for Implementation and Dissemination. Outlook on Agriculture, 39(1), 17–24. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010791169998
• Vanlauwe, B., Descheemaeker, K., Giller, K. E., Huising, J., Merckx, R., Nziguheba, G., Wendt, J., & Zingore, S. (2015). Integrated soil fertility management in sub-Saharan Africa: Unravelling local adaptation. Soil, 1, 491–508.
• Zougmoré, R., Ouattara, K., Mando, A., & Ouattara, B. (2004). Rôle des nutriments dans le succès des techniques de conservation des eaux et des sols (cordons pierreux, bandes enherbées, zaï et demi lunes) au Burkina Faso. Science et Changements Planétaires/ Sécheresse, 15(1), 41–48.

The agricultural sector in Burkina Faso is heavily dependent on water from precipitation. Since precipitation is increasingly erratic, irrigation can help farmers to adapt to these changing conditions. Irrigation can be defined as the artificial process of applying water to crops or land in order to support plant growth. The FAO distinguishes between three types of irrigation: (1) surface irrigation, where water flows over the land; (2) sprinkler irrigation, where water is sprayed under pressure over the land; and (3) drip irrigation, where water is directly brought to the plant (FAO, 2001).

Irrigation is a promising adaptation strategy in Burkina Faso. Irrigation can help smallholder farmers to compensate for the negative impacts of erratic and insufficient precipitation and significantly stabilise agricultural production. The results of the cost-benefit analysis show that under both emissions scenarios switching from rainfed to irrigated production of maize has a positive return on investment (see Figure 1). However, water retention, which is essential for the used irrigation systems in Burkina Faso, is dependent on seasonal variation and specific location which influence the accessibility and effect of irrigation. Besides, irrigation requires a significant investment and only becomes profitable after some years, depending on the type of irrigation system and the farm location. Continuous institutional support is usually required and care has to be taken to avoid potential maladaptive outcomes from irrigation. Water use for irrigation has to be carefully managed to prevent groundwater table decrease and associated consequences.

Specific recommendations regarding irrigation in Burkina Faso are:

• Low-cost irrigation options with low maintenance requirements can be promoted across Burkina Faso, where water resources are available.
• Awareness raising about water-saving irrigation management is crucial to ensure a long-term responsible use of natural resources.
• Ideally, water saving equipment, such as drip irrigation and smart irrigation systems, are promoted and supported by extension services to encourage farmers to use sustainable and environmentally responsible techniques.
• Provision of support services is needed to ensure the ability of farmers to further operate the technology and take care of their maintenance.
• For upscaling irrigation, all user interests in water and energy should be carefully considered. Dispute settlement mechanisms can be implemented to address potential conflicts between upstream and downstream users.
• Developing financing mechanism, such as access to loans or credits, can support the accessibility for irrigation equipment.

References

• FAO. (2001). Irrigation Manual: Planning, Development, Monitoring and Evaluation of Irrigated Agriculture with Farmer Participation. FAO.

Information and knowledge exchange are key to managing climate risks and mitigating climate-related impacts on agricultural crops, water resources and food security. Climate information services (CIS) can help to bridge existing information and knowledge gaps. Tall (2013) defines CIS as a timely decision aide based on climate information that assists individuals and organisations to improve ex-ante planning, policy and practical decision-making. CIS thus include the production, translation, dissemination and use of climate information for different target audiences, usually in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, water, health or disaster risk reduction (Carr, et al., 2020; Tall, 2013). According to Zongo et al. (2015), CIS usually provide seasonal estimates of the starting and ending dates of the rainy season, the length of the rainy season, the number of days with precipitation, the annual cumulative precipitation, and the average and maximum duration of dry spells during the rainy season.

Several studies have shown the positive impact of CIS on crop yields which underlines its great potential as an adaptation strategy. Having access to actionable climate information can help farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. With a rather small-scale investment and its positive return, CIS represents a highly beneficial strategy. However, setting up well-functioning CIS requires high institutional and technical support.

Based on the literature review, multi-criteria assessment and CBA (see Figure 1), specific recommendations can be given to support the implementation of CIS:

• Awareness raising campaigns can help to inform farmers and rural communities about the great advantage of CIS and gain trust in the information received. Trainings on CIS can help farmers and especially rural women to fully understand the communicated information and to be able to act on it. Ensuring that women and other minority groups have equal access to CIS can help to promote gender equality in agricultural production.
• For now, existing communication channels (radio, television, word of mouth) represent the most effective way for CIS upscaling but new information channels (mobile phones, smartphones, internet-based devices) and sources are being developed throughout Burkina Faso and should be considered to reach maximum coverage.
• Access to modern information and communication technology (e.g. smartphone, internet) should be supported.
• CIS should be targeted to the various end-users needs. An analysis along the whole value chain and gender-disaggregated data can help to identify those needs and develop target-oriented formats and make communication more effective.
• When disseminating information through CIS it is crucial to ensure timely and actionable communication in the local language(s) and effective use of e.g. visualisation and audio formats to overcome the access barrier for poor educated or illiterate people.

References

• Carr, E. R., Goble, R., Rosko, H. M., Vaughan, C., & Hansen, J. (2020). Identifying Climate Information Services Users and Their Needs in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review and Learning Agenda. Climate and Development, 12(1), 23–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1596061
• Tall, A. (2013). What Do We Mean by Climate Services? WMO Bulletin.
• Zongo, B., Diarra, A., Barbier, B., Zorom, M., Yacouba, H., & Dogot, T. (2015). Farmers’ Perception and Willingness to Pay for Climate Information in Burkina Faso. Journal of Agricultural Science, 8(1), 175. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v8n1p175

[1] World Bank, “World Bank Open Data,” 2019. Online available: https://data.worldbank.org [Accessed: 31-Jan-2020].

[2] CIA, “The World Factbook: Burkina Faso,” 2019. Online available: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/uv.html [Accessed: 30-Aug-2019].

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[5] FAO, “Socio-Economic Context and Role of Agriculture: Burkina Faso,” Rome, Italy, 2014.

[6] FAOSTAT, “Crops in Burkina Faso (Area Harvested),” 2017. Online available: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC [Accessed: 06-Mar-2020].

[7] UNDESA, “Trends in International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin,” New York, 2019.

[8] World Bank, “Migrant Remittance Inflows (US $ Million),” Washington, D.C., 2019.

[9] CONASUR, 2020, cited in: WFP Burkina Faso, “Emergency Response Situation Report #12”, 2020. Online available: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Sit%20Rep-%20BF%20%2311.pdf [Accessed: 28-May-2020].

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[12] FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, “Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019,” Rome, Italy, 2019.

[13] S. Lange, “EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim Data Merged and Bias-Corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI).” GFZ Data Service, Potsdam, Germany, 2016.

[14] World Bank, “Local Development, Institutions and Climate Change in Burkina Faso: Situation Analysis and Operational Recommendations,” Washington, D.C., 2010.

[15] B. Ampomah-Ankrah, “The Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply in the Sahel Region: The Case of Burkina Faso,” International Water Association, 2019. Online available: https://iwa-network.org/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-water-supply-in-the-sahel-region [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].

[16] S. Traore and T. Owiyo, “Dirty Droughts Causing Loss and Damage in Northern Burkina Faso,” Int. J. Glob. Warm., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 498–513, 2013.

[17] M. Winsor, “Drought-Hit Burkina Faso Rations Water Supply in Ouagadougou Amid Severe Shortage,” International Business Times, 2016. Online available: https://www.ibtimes.com/droughthit-burkina-faso-rations-water-supply-ouagadougou-amid-severeshortages-2363145 [Accessed: 02-Mar-2020].

[18] B. Barbier, H. Yacouba, H. Karambiri, M. Zoromé, and B. Somé, “Human Vulnerability to Climate Variability in the Sahel: Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in Northern Burkina Faso,” Environ. Manage., vol. 43, no. 5, pp. 790–803, 2009.

[19] B. Sarr et al., “Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in Smallholder Farming Communities: A Case Study From Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger (CVCADAPT),” J. Agric. Ext. Rural Dev., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16–27, 2015.

[20] J. Wanvoeke, J. P. Venot, C. De Fraiture, and M. Zwarteveen, “Smallholder Drip Irrigation in Burkina Faso: The Role of Development Brokers,” J. Dev. Stud., vol. 52, no. 7, pp. 1019–1033, 2016.

[21] R. E. Namara and H. Sally, “Proceedings of the Workshop on Irrigation in West Africa: Current Status and a View to the Future,” Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2014.

[22] USAID, “Country Profile: Property Rights and Resource Governance in Burkina Faso,” Washington, D.C., 2017.

[23] USAID, “Climate Risks in Food for Peace Geographies: Burkina Faso,” Washington, D.C., 2017.

[24] USAID, “Climate Risk in Food for Peace Geographies: Kenya,” Washington, D.C., 2019.

[25] S. Dos Santos, J. P. Peumi, and A. Soura, “Risk Factors of Becoming a Disaster Victim: The Flood of September 1st, 2009, in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso),” Habitat Int., vol. 86, no. March, pp. 81–90, 2019.

[26] M. Dabaieh, O. Wanas, M. A. Hegazy, and E. Johansson, “Reducing Cooling Demands in a Hot Dry Climate: A Simulation Study for Non-Insulated Passive Cool Roof Thermal Performance in Residential Buildings,” Energy Build., vol. 89, pp. 142–152, 2015.

[27] T. M. Shanahan et al., “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.

[28] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.

[29] K. Dimobe, A. Ouédraogo, S. Soma, D. Goetze, S. Porembski, and A. Thiombiano, “Identification of Driving Factors of Land Degradation and Deforestation in the Wildlife Reserve of Bontioli (Burkina Faso, West Africa),” Glob. Ecol. Conserv., vol. 4, pp. 559–571, 2015.

[30] A. Russell et al., “Using Forests to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change: The Case of the Wood-Energy Sector in Burkina Faso,” n.p., 2013.

[31] B. Simane, H. Beyene, W. Deressa, A. Kumie, K. Berhane, and J. Samet, “Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis,” Ethiop. J. Heal. Dev., vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 28–41, 2016.

[32] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC in Burkina Faso,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2011.

[33] Severe Malaria Observatory, “Burkina Faso,” 2019. Online available: https://www.severemalaria.org/countries/burkina-faso [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].

[34] E. Diboulo et al., “Weather and Mortality: A 10 Year Retrospective Analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso,” Glob. Health Action, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 19078, Dec. 2012.

[35] K. Belesova, A. Gasparrini, A. Sié, R. Sauerborn, and P. Wilkinson, “Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso,” Am. J. Epidemiol., vol. 187, no. 2, pp. 242–250, 2018.

[36] International Committee of the Red Cross, “Burkina Faso: Increased Armed Violence Means Loss of Health Care for Half a Million People,” 2019. Online available: https://www.icrc.org/en/document/burkina-faso-increased-armed-violence-means-loss-health-care-halfmillion-people [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].

Climate change threatens the health and sanitation sector through more frequent incidences of heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms [31]. Among the key health challenges in Burkina Faso are morbidity and mortality through temperature extremes, vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, waterborne diseases related to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding), such as diarrhoea, and respiratory diseases, which are the number one cause of death [32]. According to the Severe Malaria Observatory, malaria is responsible for 61.5 % of hospitalisations in Burkina Faso and the largest contributor to mortality for children under five years of age [33]. Furthermore, extreme weather events as well as climate impacts on food and water supply are likely to increase the risk of malnutrition, hunger and death by famine. Scientific investigations found a strong link between extreme weather events and mortality patterns in Burkina Faso [34]. Additionally, climate-induced variations in crop yields were negatively associated with children’s nutritional status and child survival in rural areas [35]. Despite increased government funding and expansion of health interventions, access to health care in Burkina Faso remains limited and is becoming increasingly difficult: According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), more than 500 000 people in Burkina Faso have no access to health care because many health and humanitarian organisations have limited or even closed down their operations due to armed conflicts [36].

Exposure to heatwaves

Rising temperatures will result in more frequent heatwaves in Burkina Faso, leading to increased heat-related mortality. Under RCP6.0, the population affected by at least one heatwave per year is projected to increase from 1.7 % in 2000 to 10 % in 2080 (Figure 17).

Heat-related mortality

Furthermore, heat-related mortality will likely increase from approximately 2 to about 10 deaths per 100 000 people per year, which translates to an increase by a factor of five towards the end of the century compared to year 2000 levels, provided that no adaptation to hotter conditions will take place (Figure 18). Under RCP2.6, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to about 5 deaths per 100 000 people per year in 2080.

References

[31] B. Simane, H. Beyene, W. Deressa, A. Kumie, K. Berhane, and J. Samet, “Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis,” Ethiop. J. Heal. Dev., vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 28–41, 2016.
[32] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC in Burkina Faso,” Atlanta, Georgia, 2011.
[33] Severe Malaria Observatory, “Burkina Faso,” 2019. Online available: https://www.severemalaria.org/countries/burkina-faso [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].
[34] E. Diboulo et al., “Weather and Mortality: A 10 Year Retrospective Analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso,” Glob. Health Action, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 19078, Dec. 2012.
[35] K. Belesova, A. Gasparrini, A. Sié, R. Sauerborn, and P. Wilkinson, “Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso,” Am. J. Epidemiol., vol. 187, no. 2, pp. 242–250, 2018.
[36] International Committee of the Red Cross, “Burkina Faso: Increased Armed Violence Means Loss of Health Care for Half a Million People,” 2019. Online available: https://www.icrc.org/en/document/burkina-faso-increased-armed-violence-means-loss-health-care-halfmillion-people [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on the ecology and distribution of tropical ecosystems, though the magnitude, rate and direction of these changes are uncertain [27]. With rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of droughts, wetlands and riverine systems are increasingly at risk of being converted to other ecosystems, with plants being succeeded and animals losing habitats. Increased temperatures and droughts can also influence succession in forest systems while concurrently increasing the risk of invasive species, all of which affect ecosystems.

Species richness

Model projections of species richness (including amphibians, birds and mammals) and tree cover for Burkina Faso are shown in Figure 15 and 16, respectively. The models applied for this analysis show clear patterns of change in species richness across both RCPs: In most regions, the number of species is projected to decrease in response to climate change (Figure 15). In 2080, under RCP6.0, this decrease will reach almost 10 % compared to the year 2000. An increase of species richness is only projected for the south-west of Burkina Faso.

Tree cover

The opposite gradient is found in tree cover projections, with increases projected for the north-east and decreases projected for the south-west (Figure 16). Under RCP6.0, the increase in tree cover in the northeast amounts to about 5 % compared to the year 2000. This can be explained by the increasing precipitation levels in this region.

Although these results paint an overall positive picture for climate change impacts on tree cover, it is important to keep in mind that the model projections exclude any impacts on biodiversity loss from human activities such as land use, which have been responsible for significant losses of global biodiversity in the past, and are expected to remain its main driver in the future [28]. In Burkina Faso, the need for new settlements, land for cultivation and for fuel wood threatens tree cover and biodiversity [29]. Fuel wood covers 85 % of household energy needs in Burkina Faso, resulting in ongoing deforestation [30]. These pressures are likely to intensify due to low agricultural production and population growth, resulting in even higher rates of deforestation, land degradation and forest fires, all of which will impact animal and plant biodiversity.

References

[27] T. M. Shanahan et al., “CO2 and Fire Influence Tropical Ecosystem Stability in Response to Climate Change,” Nat. Publ. Gr., no. July, pp. 1–8, 2016.
[28] IPBES, “Report of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the Work of Its Seventh Session,” n.p., 2019.
[29] K. Dimobe, A. Ouédraogo, S. Soma, D. Goetze, S. Porembski, and A. Thiombiano, “Identification of Driving Factors of Land Degradation and Deforestation in the Wildlife Reserve of Bontioli (Burkina Faso, West Africa),” Glob. Ecol. Conserv., vol. 4, pp. 559–571, 2015.
[30] A. Russell et al., “Using Forests to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change: The Case of the Wood-Energy Sector in Burkina Faso,” n.p., 2013.

Climate change is expected to significantly affect Burkina Faso’s infrastructure sector through extreme weather events, such as flooding and droughts. High precipitation amounts can lead to flooding of transport infrastructure including roads and railroads, while high temperatures can cause roads, bridges and protective structures to develop cracks and degrade more quickly. Transport infrastructure is very vulnerable to extreme weather events, yet essential for social, economic and agricultural livelihoods. Roads serve communities to trade their goods and access healthcare, education, credit as well as other services, especially in rural and remote areas.

Extreme weather events will also have devastating effects on human settlements and economic production sites, especially in urban areas with high population densities like Ouagadougou or Bobo-Dioulasso. Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events: Makeshift homes are often built in unstable geographical locations including river banks, where flooding can lead to loss of housing, contamination of water, injury or death. Dwellers usually have low adaptive capacity to respond to such events due to high levels of poverty and a lack of risk-reducing infrastructures. These challenges are particularly salient in Ouagadougou, where urban flooding is a major problem during the rainy season. For example, in 2009, the city experienced torrential precipitation leading to water runoffs and flooding, affecting more than 180 000 people. 41 people died and 33 172 houses were completely destroyed [25].

Despite the risk of infrastructure damage being likely to increase due to climate change, precise predictions of the location and the extent of exposure are difficult to make. For example, projections of river flood events are subject to substantial modelling uncertainty, largely due to the uncertainty of future projections of precipitation amounts and their spatial distribution, affecting flood occurrence (see also Figure 4 in the Climate section). In the case of Burkina Faso, projections for both RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 show almost no change in the exposure of major roads to river floods. In the year 2000, 0.13 % of major roads were exposed to river floods at least once a year, while by 2080, this value is projected to change to 0.14 % under RCP2.6 and to 0.12 % under RCP6.0. In a similar way, exposure of urban land area to floods is projected not to change under either RCP (Figure 13).

While all models project an increase in the exposure of the GDP to heatwaves, the magnitude of the increase is subject to high modelling uncertainty with two models projecting strong and two models projecting weak increases. Median model projections for RCP2.6 show an increase from 2.0 % in 2000 to 7.0 % by 2080. Under RCP6.0, exposure is projected to increase to 10.5 % over the same time period. It is recommended that policy planners start identifying heat-sensitive economic production sites and activities, and integrating climate adaptation strategies, such as improved, solar-powered cooling systems, “cool roof” isolation materials or switching the operating hours from day to night [26].

References

[25] S. Dos Santos, J. P. Peumi, and A. Soura, “Risk Factors of Becoming a Disaster Victim: The Flood of September 1st, 2009, in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso),” Habitat Int., vol. 86, no. March, pp. 81–90, 2019.
[26] M. Dabaieh, O. Wanas, M. A. Hegazy, and E. Johansson, “Reducing Cooling Demands in a Hot Dry Climate: A Simulation Study for Non-Insulated Passive Cool Roof Thermal Performance in Residential Buildings,” Energy Build., vol. 89, pp. 142–152, 2015.

Smallholder farmers in Burkina Faso are increasingly challenged by the uncertainty and variability of weather that climate change causes [18], [19]. Since crops are predominantly rainfed, they depend on water availability from precipitation and are prone to drought. However, the length and intensity of the rainy season is becoming increasingly unpredictable and the use of irrigation facilities remains limited due to high costs of initial investment, problems regarding the maintenance of the equipment and harsh environmental conditions [20]. Currently, only 0.5 % of the total national crop land and 27 % of the estimated irrigation potential of 233 500 ha are irrigated [21], [22]. Especially in northern Burkina Faso, soils are poor in nutrients, sandy and shallow, which makes them vulnerable to drying, erosion and flooding [23]. 

Crop land exposure to drought

Currently, the high uncertainty of projections regarding water availability (Figure 9) translates into high uncertainty of drought projections (Figure 10). According to the median over all models employed for this analysis, the national crop land area exposed to at least one drought per year will hardly change in response to global warming. However, there are models that project a strong increase in drought exposure. Under RCP6.0, the likely range of drought exposure of the national crop land area per year widens from 0.07–3.8 % in 2000 to 0.04–16.0 % in 2080. The very likely range widens from 0.01–12.0 % in 2000 to 0.01–29.0 % in 2080. This means that some models project up to a fourfold increase in drought exposure over this time period, while others project no change.

Crop yield projections

Climate change will have a negative impact on yields of maize, millet and sorghum (Figure 11). While maize is sensitive to hot temperatures above 35 °C, millet and sorghum tolerate hot temperatures and dry periods better [24]. Still, model results indicate a negative yield trend for all three crops under both RCPs with a stronger decrease under RCP6.0. Compared to the year 2000, amounts are projected to decline by 12.0 % for maize and 7.5 % for millet and sorghum by 2080 under RCP6.0. Under RCP2.6, yields of maize are projected to decline by 8.4 % and yields of millet and sorghum by 5.2 %, whereas yields of cow peas and rice are projected to gain from climate change. Under RCP6.0, projections show an increase in yield by 16.2 % for cow peas and 27.0 % for rice by 2080 relative to the year 2000. An explanation for the positive results under RCP6.0 is that cow peas and rice are so-called C3 plants, which follow a different metabolic pathway than maize, millet and sorghum (C4 plants), and benefit more from the CO2 fertilisation effect under higher concentration pathways. Yields of groundnuts are projected to decrease under RCP2.6 and slightly increase under RCP6.0. The decrease under RCP2.6 can be explained by non-temperature related parameters such as changes in precipitation, while the increase under RCP6.0 can be explained by the CO2 fertilisation effect.

Overall, adaptation strategies such as switching to improved varieties in climate change sensitive crops should be considered, yet carefully weighed against adverse outcomes, such as a resulting decline of agro-biodiversity and loss of local crop types.

References

[18] B. Barbier, H. Yacouba, H. Karambiri, M. Zoromé, and B. Somé, “Human Vulnerability to Climate Variability in the Sahel: Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in Northern Burkina Faso,” Environ. Manage., vol. 43, no. 5, pp. 790–803, 2009.
[19] B. Sarr et al., “Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in Smallholder Farming Communities: A Case Study From Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger (CVCADAPT),” J. Agric. Ext. Rural Dev., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16–27, 2015.
[20] J. Wanvoeke, J. P. Venot, C. De Fraiture, and M. Zwarteveen, “Smallholder Drip Irrigation in Burkina Faso: The Role of Development Brokers,” J. Dev. Stud., vol. 52, no. 7, pp. 1019–1033, 2016.
[21] R. E. Namara and H. Sally, “Proceedings of the Workshop on Irrigation in West Africa: Current Status and a View to the Future,” Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2014.
[22] USAID, “Country Profile: Property Rights and Resource Governance in Burkina Faso,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[23] USAID, “Climate Risks in Food for Peace Geographies: Burkina Faso,” Washington, D.C., 2017.
[24] USAID, “Climate Risk in Food for Peace Geographies: Kenya,” Washington, D.C., 2019.

Over the last decades, Burkina Faso has experienced strong seasonal and annual variations in precipitation, which present a major constraint to agricultural production. According to the International Water Association, drought has affected a cumulative number of about 12.4 million people between 1969 and 2014 in Burkina Faso [15]. While transhumance used to be an effective way to deal with variations in precipitation and droughts in Burkina Faso, people’s reliance on this type of pastoralism has been challenged by increasingly unpredictable precipitation patterns and, consequently, a lack of good pastures and water, leading to increasing competition for limited natural resources. Other factors include population growth, conflicts between farmers and herders and terrorist activities in the region, making this mode of living less profitable and sometimes even dangerous [16]. Extreme droughts tend to have a cascading effect for farmers: First, lack of water reduces crop yields, which increases the risk of food insecurity for people and their livestock, which in turn limits their capacity to cope with future droughts [16]. Not only rural but also urban areas experience the consequences of droughts: Especially Ouagadougou suffers from recurring water shortages, intensified by rapid urban growth and poor infrastructure. During a severe drought in 2016, the local government had to ration the city’s water supply to 12 hours a day, affecting more than two million people [17].

Per capita water availability

Current projections of water availability in Burkina Faso display high uncertainty under both GHG emissions scenarios. Assuming a constant population level, multi-model median projections suggest only a minor decrease in per capita water availability over Burkina Faso by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and a decrease of 20 % under RCP6.0 (Figure 8A). Yet, when accounting for population growth according to SSP2 projections5, per capita water availability for Burkina Faso is projected to decline by 80 % by 2080 relative to the year 2000 under both scenarios (Figure 8B). While this decline is driven primarily by population growth rather than climate change, it highlights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption.

Spatial distribution of water availability

Projections of future water availability from precipitation vary depending on the region and scenario (Figure 9). However, common to all regions is the high modelling uncertainty of the projected changes. This modelling uncertainty, along with the high natural variability of precipitation, in particular in the north of the country, contribute to uncertain regional future precipitation trends all over Burkina Faso.

References

[15] B. Ampomah-Ankrah, “The Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply in the Sahel Region: The Case of Burkina Faso,” International Water Association, 2019. Online available: https://iwa-network.org/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-water-supply-in-the-sahel-region [Accessed: 31-Oct-2019].
[16] S. Traore and T. Owiyo, “Dirty Droughts Causing Loss and Damage in Northern Burkina Faso,” Int. J. Glob. Warm., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 498–513, 2013.
[17] M. Winsor, “Drought-Hit Burkina Faso Rations Water Supply in Ouagadougou Amid Severe Shortage,” International Business Times, 2016. Online available: https://www.ibtimes.com/droughthit-burkina-faso-rations-water-supply-ouagadougou-amid-severeshortages-2363145 [Accessed: 02-Mar-2020].