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The overall objective of the workshop was to present and validate the results of the climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Zambia. Representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP), Ministry of Green Economy and Environment (MGEE), Ministry of Water Development and Sanitation (MWDS), Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock (MFL) as well as other relevant stakeholders from politics, science and civil society were invited to discuss and comment on the results of the climate risk analysis and their implications for adaptation planning.

The workshop was formally opened by Kristin Otto, Deputy Head of Development Cooperation at the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany and Madame Peggy Mlewa, Director for Policy and Planning at the MoA.

Dr. Rahel Laudien from PIK summarized the key findings of the climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Zambia: Climate change in Zambia will cause temperatures to rise between 2°C and 4°C by 2100 and extreme weather conditions will increase. In this context, the southwest will be more affected by climate change than the northeast of Zambia. These changes will affect agricultural production as suitable cropland will decrease and shift northward, and sorghum yields will decrease. In addition, the study examines examples of suitable adaptation strategies such as conservation agriculture and early-warning systems. Conservation agriculture is a cropping system that promotes minimal soil disturbance, maintenance of permanent soil cover, and crop species diversification. It can mitigate the effects of climate change and increase sorghum yields. Early-warning systems based on site-specific climate and weather information, paired with local knowledge, allow farmers to anticipate climate risks and make informed decisions about their agricultural practices, leading to higher yields and thus improved food security. The study also highlights different feasible and cost-effective options for financing climate adaptation measures through national, international, public, and private sources. Further, the study notes that climate change impacts are not gender-neutral and that different groups have different adaptive capacities. Carefully designed adaptation strategies can therefore help to increase the participation of women and other marginalized groups.

Details of the above mentioned results were presented by different experts from PIK, University of Kassel, HFFA Research and GIZ.

During the workshop, Madame Peggy Mlewa emphasized the importance of the study and the relevance of strengthening the empirical evidence of policy making in Zambia, as adaptation action and respective investments should be well informed and based on scientific evidence.

Through active participation of all representatives, helpful feedback and constructive discussions during the validation workshop, recommendations and suggestions were collected and will now be implemented into the climate risk analysis.

As next steps, the revised draft of the climate risk analysis will be shared with selected stakeholders and participants of the validation workshop to gather further feedback. The study is expected to be finalized by the end of May.

Validation of results

The overall objective of the climate risk analysis was to provide scientific evidence on climate risks in the agricultural sector in Cameroon and to evaluate suitable adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers.

At the validation workshop in Yaoundé, the key results of the climate risk analysis were presented and through active stakeholder participation and constructive discussions, helpful feedback, recommendations and suggestions were collected. The workshop was supported and co-chaired by ONACC (Observatoire National sur les Changements Climatiques) and attended by 36 participants, including:

• Representatives of five ministries and national research institutes: MINEPDED (Environment), MINEPAT (Economy & Planification), MINADER (Agriculture), MINEE (Water & Energy) MINT (Transport) and CRECC (Scientific Research Institute)
• Representatives of national universities
• Representatives of local civil society organisations
  
• Representatives of international organisations, such as ICRAF, WWF, GIZ Cameroon and the German Embassy (BMZ)

Political endorsement

The AGRICA study is endorsed by the Ministry of Environment, Nature Protection and Sustainable Development of the Republic of Cameroon (MINEPDED). Representatives of MINEPDED at the workshop stressed the importance and relevance of the study results for current national climate and development policies in Cameroon and affirmed the Ministry’s support.

Next steps

The feedback that was received at the validation workshop and beyond is currently being incorporated into to final study which will be published in summer 2023. The final study will also include a shorter summary paper aimed at policy makers.

The study results

The study covers climate impact projections for two agricultural value chains and analyses different adaptation strategies in terms of their risk mitigation potential and economic viability. The analysis specifically looks at how maize yields and the suitability of coffee will be impacted by climate change as well as how these impacts are felt at post-harvest steps of the respective value chains. To buffer these risks, improved maize varieties, agroforestry measures and improved post-harvest storage are assessed as potential adaptation strategies. Key results include:

• By 2050, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario.
• Maize yields are projected to decrease between 8.6 % and 14.3 % by 2050 with large repercussions for foods security (see map below).
• Land that is suitable to grow coffee will decrease affecting Uganda’s export earnings, as well as farmers’ livelihoods. Arabica coffee is particularly affected with projected suitability losses of up to 20 % until 2050. Robusta suitability will only slightly, but progressively, decrease with time with higher losses expected under the high emissions scenario of up to 5 %.

Agroforestry, improved seeds and improved post-harvest storage are examples of adaptation strategies that can significantly buffer the projected losses. Also, investing in these adaptation strategies makes good economic sense for farmers as they yield considerable returns on investments.

In addition to the workshop, PIK’s senior scientist Dr Abel Chemura gave a training on crop modelling at the National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO), building on a Memorandum of Understanding between the two institutes to foster scientific collaboration.

A participatory research process

An important core element of the climate risk analysis is a participatory process. The study was initiated at a kick-off workshop in Kampala in March 2021, which was followed by various consultations and on-the-ground data collection processes in Kampala, Soroti, Lira, Agago, Mukono and Mityana. Furthermore, as part of the close research collaboration between PIK and NARO, PIK hosted Ms Eres Awori from NARO as a guest researcher at PIK in Potsdam/Berlin in September 2022.

The study, conducted on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), is further embedded in the GIZ project Promoting Rural Development in Uganda (PRUDEV) and the Responsible Land Policy in Uganda (RELAPU) project.

Next steps

The feedback, received at the validation workshop and beyond, is currently being incorporated and the study will be published this summer. Its findings build the basis for the new research project AfriValue, which PIK is conducting on behalf of the BMZ in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. This research will delve deeper into the complex direct and indirect repercussions of climate risks for coffee value chains aiming to identify transformative actions for adaptation along the different steps of agricultural value chains.

For questions and updates, please contact the study coordinator Sophie von Loeben: loeben@pik-potsdam.de

Like previous AGRICA climate risk profiles, this profile provides a condensed overview of projected climate parameters and related impacts on five key sectors in the region, including on water, agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems and human health. In addition, it also includes information on issues related to conflict and migration. We have previously developed another regional profile for the Sahel, together with UNHCR, and are currently developing a profile for the Southern African region.

You can download the profile for Eastern Africa here.

Too often, valuable scientific results are produced without making it into practice and without reaching their target group. AGRICA seeks to bridge this gap by making use of innovative communication formats and by partnering with organizations which have long-standing on-the-ground experience. One such organization is Farm Radio International (FRI), which is an NGO focused on providing advice to African farmers via the radio. Currently, FRI is active in 41 countries across Africa and via more than 1,000 radio stations on the continent.

Together, AGRICA and FRI took the scientific findings from two recent climate risk analyses conducted in Burkina Faso and Niger and developed radio scripts from these analyses. While the analyses are in-depth reports available in English and French, the radio scripts contain only the most important information for smallholder farmers – and they are translated into local languages, for example, into Fulfulde, Hausa and Zarma in the case of Niger. Furthermore, the scripts are designed as a two-host discussion and are publicly available so that radio hosts, journalists and anyone interested in easy-to-understand scientific results can access these scripts and share them with their audiences.

In this way, the scientific results produced in the AGRICA project have the chance to reach a large number of farmers, which is reflected in the rapid distribution of the radio scripts in Burkina Faso and Niger. For example, in Burkina Faso, the script was distributed via the national Farm Radio WhatsApp group, which has more than 250 members and via email to more than 400 broadcasters of the FRI network. Twelve broadcasters from four radio stations reported to be already using the radio script and to be distributing the findings through different formats like round table discussions, interviews, vox pops and magazines. “I learnt a lot personally, especially about the zaï technique, and afterwards I was able to produce an agricultural programme that met the farmers’ expectations,” one broadcaster told the FRI team.

Although COP27 failed to advance a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it would be unfair to view this COP purely in terms of its shortcomings. It showed that there is movement in terms of agenda setting as well as in efforts for greater climate justice.

For example, COP27 put a markedly stronger focus on agriculture and the need for adaptation in this sector by hosting the first food-systems pavilion as well as developing a new four-year plan on agriculture and food security – the Koronivia work programme – and a new initiative aimed at increasing funding for a transformation of the agricultural sector by 2030. In this context, Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström, one of the PIK directors, and Prof. Dr. Christoph Gornott, leader of the PIK working group on adaptation in agricultural systems, participated in a panel discussion titled “Food security in a world of multiple crises” organized by the German Pavilion. The experts, along with Rachel Bezner Kerr and Henry Neufeldt, both IPCC lead authors on food-related issues in the IPCC Working Group II, and Sixbert Mwanga, Executive Director at the Climate Action Network (CAN) Tanzania, discussed possible solutions for sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural systems as well as their feasibility and co-benefits. According to Johan Rockström, climate policy and practice need not only look at biophysical tipping points but also at social tipping points, which are increasingly reflected in a widespread abandonment of agricultural livelihoods across the African continent – and across different parts of the value chain. As Christoph Gornott noted, climate impacts do not only occur in agricultural production but also in other parts of the value chain like, for example, processing, storage or transportation. Hence, adaptation efforts in the agricultural sector require holistic approaches.

Likely, the biggest success of COP27 was achieved regarding loss and damage: For the first time in COP history, the issue made it truly on the agenda and the unprecedented importance given to loss and damage materialized in the establishment of a global loss and damage fund – the so-called Global Shield against Climate Risks – through which rich countries are to compensate poorer countries for the losses and damages caused by climate change. Although the details of such a fund are not clear yet, for example, who exactly will pay into the fund and according to which criteria, it was universally received as a truly positive outcome of COP27 and an important step in achieving greater climate justice.

In April and May 2022, joint PIK and GIZ teams have been holding kick-off workshops with representatives from the government, academia, civil society and international organizations in Yaoundé, Kampala and Lusaka with the aim to present first study results, further refine the study focus and identify stakeholders’ priorities and possible entry points to national policies and programmes.

The climate risk analyses will be structured along the usual AGRICA impact-action study framework with each study specifically tailored to the local context and end users’ needs.

In Cameroon, the study will focus on maize, cocoa and cassava production which are major drivers for deforestation. In addition, forest cover change and grassland productivity are considered to support resilient land use and adaptation planning.

In Uganda, the climate impacts and adaptation options along maize and coffee value chains are assessed, as well as interactions between climate change and land governance.

In Zambia, water availability in the Kafue catchment will be a particular focus of the climate risk analysis. Moreover, the evaluation of adaptation options to climate change will include several criteria, including a cost-benefit analysis and financing options.

The climate risk analyses are developed over the coming year in a participatory manner and in close collaboration with national ministries and research institutes.

If you are interested in collaboration, please feel free to contact Prof. Dr. Christoph Gornott: gornott@pik-potsdam.de

The one-day workshop was formally opened by David Löw, Deputy Head of Development Cooperation at the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany; Luigina Blaich, Head of Programme Promoting Rural Development at GIZ; Lydia Mugala, Senior Agriculture Officer at the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF); Dr. Florence Adongo, Director of Water Resources at the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE); and Prof. Dr. Christoph Gornott, Working Group Leader at PIK. The importance of science-based climate change adaptation was highlighted for both, national development planning, as well as the German-Ugandan development cooperation. Lydia Mugala (MAAIF) emphasized “the magnitude of challenge” for the agricultural sector and the need for “innovative thinking”. Dr. Florence Adongo (MWE) further highlighted the importance of adaptation, mitigation and enhancing technologies in the agricultural sector, with the agricultural sector being the backdrop of the economy and the biggest user of water in the country. Furthermore, Semambo Muhammad Kasagazi, Principal Climate Change Officer Adaptation at MWE gave a technical brief on the role of agriculture in Uganda’s national climate change adaptation agenda. The event was moderated by Naima Lipka and Janani Luwum Onencan from GIZ.

Christoph Gornott, Lisa Murken and Sophie von Loeben from PIK introduced the study framework and presented first climate change projections. During interactive sessions, the study focus was further refined, climate risks and possible adaptation strategies along maize and coffee value chains and land governance aspects were discussed and possible entry points to national climate resilience and agricultural plans and programmes identified.

With the aim to support stakeholders with risk-informed planning and investment, a particular focus of the study will be placed on analysing impacts along the coffee and maize value chains and investigating interactions between climate change and land governance. Based on the risks identified, agroforestry, improved seeds and improved post-harvest handling and storage will be analysed as adaptation strategies with regard to their feasibility, cost effectiveness and aptitude for local conditions.

The workshop was followed by field work in Northern, Eastern and Central Uganda. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were conducted with key stakeholders along the maize and coffee value chains, including people involved in farming, aggregation, processing and marketing, in addition to representatives of governments and NGOs. Results will be linked to climate and crop modelling. To assess how climate change and extreme weather events affect land tenure security and how tenure security in turn affects adaptation uptake, we used mental models to map farmers’ decision-making processes with the aim to better understand their perception of intention to a) acquire formal land titles and b) implement adaptation strategies.

The study is conducted together with the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) and supported by Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, the Ministry of Water and Environment, the Ministry of Local Government and the Ministry of Lands, Housing & Urban Development and developed in close cooperation with the Climate Policy Support Programme (SV Klima), Promoting Rural Development (PRUDEV) and Responible Land Policy in Uganda (RELAPU) at GIZ.

For more information, please contact Sophie von Loeben: loeben@pik-potsdam.de

One option to help farmers increase the productivity of soil, water, nutrients and other resources is the genetic improvement of crops under stress and optimal growing conditions (IPCC, 2019; Searchinger et al., 2014; Voss-Fels et al., 2019). An improved or modern variety is a new variety of a plant species which produces higher yields, higher quality or provides better resistance to plant pests and diseases, while minimizing the pressure on the natural environment (Access to Seeds Index, 2020). Such modern varieties are genetically uniform, which means that their characteristics are constant within all individuals of that specific variety. The exact definition and requirements of improved varieties depend on a country’s legislation and international treaties (e.g. harmonized Seed Regulation adopted by ECOWAS). Improved varieties have, for example, higher tolerances to abiotic stressors, such as drought (Fisher et al., 2015), resistances to biotic stressors (e.g. diseases and pests), improved resource use or other changes that permit altering the agronomic management by, for example, needing shorter growing cycles. Along with labour saving technologies and flexible credits, locally adapted seed varieties are among the most needed inputs for farmers in Burkina Faso (Roncoli et al., 2001).

Improved crop varieties are a highly beneficial adaptation strategy in Burkina Faso. Furthermore, the cost-benefit analysis shows a very positive return on a rather small-scale investment (see Figure 1). Due to its positive impact on yield increase and stability as well as increased levels of nutrients, improved varieties can also help to decrease malnutrition and undernutrition. However, there are several factors, such as high prices of agricultural inputs, the insufficiency of logistical and financial support, the poor organization of the sector, the lack of motivation by seed producers to enter the market, the climatic risks associated with agricultural production and a decline in soil fertility, which impede the use of improved seeds by farmers. Besides that, insufficient agronomic knowledge or non-locally adapted varieties can lead to controversial effects and negative outcomes of this strategy.

To achieve the optimal adaptation effect of improved varieties, the following recommendations should be considered:

• Ideally, improved varieties are promoted that fulfil several conditions, such as farmers’ preferences, local suitability, agronomic management and that are available and accessible for smallholder farmers. The sufficient supply of locally adapted good quality seeds on the local level should be, therefore, supported.
• To promote a continuing process of innovation adoption, efforts should be directed to creating a seed sector that covers the overall process for improved seeds from plant breeding and pre-breeding to seed propagation, marketing and advisory, whilst focusing on farmers’ needs.
• Knowledge transfer regarding the varieties’ potential and the best way to cultivate them can help farmers to use improved varieties.
• For a profitable adoption it is necessary to ameliorate the functioning of the agricultural value chain including functioning infrastructure and agriculture markets to make agricultural inputs available and accessible.
• It is also important to highlight the value of local landraces, as they are a pillar for safeguarding local traditions, agronomic practices and accompanying knowledge. Such a safeguarding of seeds and practices could be institutionalized by in-situ conservation projects, local seed banks, corporations with national or international gene banks and diversity fairs.
• A better communication and interaction of seed sector stakeholders can help to improve seed and knowledge dissemination on a local, regional and national level.

References

• Access to Seeds Index. (2020). Definitions. https://www.accesstoseeds.org/definitions/
• Fisher, M., Abate, T., Lunduka, R. W., Asnake, W., Alemayehu, Y., & Madulu, R. B. (2015). Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Climate Change, 133(2), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1459-2
• IPCC. (2019). Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• Ishikawa, H., Drabo, I., Joseph, B., Batieno, B., Muranaka, S., Fatokoun, C., & Boukar, O. (2020). Characteristics of farmers’ selection criteria for cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) varieties differ between north and south regions of Burkina Faso. Ex. Agric, 56(1), 94–103. https://doi.org/10.1017/S001447971900019X
• Roncoli, C., Ingram, K., & Kirshen, P. (2001). (2001): The costs and risks of coping with drought: Livelihood impacts and farmers’ responses in Burkina Faso. Clim. Res., 19, 119–132. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019119
• Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., & Lacape, J.-M. (2014). Crop Breeding: Renewing the Global Commitment. WRI.
• Voss-Fels, K. P., Stahl, A., Wittkop, B., Lichthardt, C., Nagler, S., Rose, T., Chen, T.-W., Zetzsche, H., Seddig, S., Baig, M. M., Ballvora, A., Frisch, M., Ross, E., Hayes, B. J., Hayden, M. J., Ordon, F., Leon, J., Kage, H., Friedt, W., … Snowdon, R. J. (2019). Breeding improves wheat productivity under contrasting agrochemical input levels. Nature Plants, 5(7), 706–714. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-019-0445-5